According to the researchlinkconductedby Topline Securities titled “*Pakistan Market Outlook 2021: A year ofeconomic stabilization”, *PKR/USD is likely to close around 166 in Jun 2021and 172 by December 2021. However, that should not be alarming as theoverall market is expected to do good and Pakistan is likely to headtowards economic stabilization by the end of 2021.
The rupee will fluctuate around 155-175 during 2021 according to thereport. The research is very accurate as can be seen from the 2020 versionlinkofthe report which expected the rupee to depreciate to Rs158 by Jun-2020 andat Rs162 by Dec-2020.
The report says, “*We have set an KSE-100 index target of 52,500 byDec-2021, which is an upside of 25% (USD-based: 18%) from here. In 2020,KSE-100 index is up just 4% (YTD), in spite of a sharp 55% recovery fromits bottom in Mar-2020.”*
The report also suggests the GDP is expected to grow by 2.0-2.5% in theFiscal Year 2020-21 (FY21). The average GDP growth in the last 10 years in3.5%. Pakistan’s market cap to GDP ratio is still on of the lowest aroundthe world. Moreover, monetary tightening is expected to start in May 2021with a likely increase of 75-100bps in the policy rate by the State Bank ofPakistan (SBP) in 2021.
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