As global attention remains fixed on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, SouthAsia just averted a catastrophic war between two nuclear-armed neighbors.
On March 10, 2022, Pakistan’s military spokesperson Maj. General BabarIftikhar announced link that on March 9, thePakistan Air Force tracked a “high speed object” that traveled from India80 miles into Pakistani territory before landing in Mian Channu, Pakistan.Thankfully, there were no casualties on the Pakistani side. And, to itscredit, despite tracking the object since its launch from India and untilit detonated in Pakistani territory, Pakistan did not exercise its right toretaliate in self-defense. The seven minutes flight time of themissile—from its launch in India to its detonation in Pakistan—could haveled to cataclysmic consequences for a world already burdened by severalarmed conflicts.
This Indian “high speed object” wasn’t a stray drone or a fallensatellite—it was reportedly India’s much-touted BrahMos nuclear-capablemissile. Two days after Pakistan military’s announcement, India’s Ministryof External Affairs (MEA) admittedlinkthat,“in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to theaccidental firing of a missile” and claimedlinktohave “ordered a high level enquiry.” To date, India has not confirmedwhether the missile was the nuclear-capable Brahmos or explained how a“technical malfunction” could have caused an accidental launch. Pakistanhas asked for a joint probe into the incident.
On the face of it, India’s explanation seems aimed at placatinginternational concerns about the safety of its missile arsenal. Thisexplanation shouldn’t suffice if the world is serious at probing whatcaused an “accidental” missile to launch by a nuclear power—something thatcould have brought two nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of a dangerouswar. As notedlinkbyChristopher Clary, “last week’s episode may be the first inadvertent launchof a cruise or ballistic missile by one nuclear power unto the territory ofanother nuclear power.”
What is more alarming—and makes the waters murkier—is India’s DefenseMinister Rajnath Singh’s statemenlinkon March 15 before India’s parliament. Surprisingly, he omitted the IndianMEA’s earlier reference to the missile’s “technical malfunction” in thecourse of “routine maintenance” and instead said that Indian military’sstandard operating procedures “though unmatched and of high calibre, wouldbe revised – if needed – following the ensuing Court of Inquiry (CoI) intothe incident.” As reportedlinkbyRahul Bedi, some defense analysts have interpreted this to indicate thatthe government is suggesting that this was due to “human error.”
And there are good reasons why India would like to pin the missile launchon “human error.” In January, Indialinkinkeda $ 375 million deal with the Philippines for the supply of the BrahMosmissile—India’s prized weapon jointly manufactured with Russia. India’sobfuscation from first calling the missile launch a “technical malfunction”and later implying it could have been a “human error” is purportedly toavoid the BrahMos being categorized as a faulty weapons system—somethingthat can deter potential sovereign buyers of the weapon system.
The Indian missile launch calls into question India’s reckless behavior asa nuclear weapons state and damages its much-touted credentials as acounter-weight to China through the U.S.-led Quad.
First, even assuming this was an accidental launch, India failed toimmediately notify Pakistan through the army-to-army hotline. It isalarming that it took India full two days to offer a vacuous explanationand that too, after Pakistan’s military shared granular evidence about themissile’s trajectory, its flight time, and other details. As notedlinkbyClary, this was a violation of India and Pakistan’s 1991 agreement onpreventing air space violations “which obligates both sides that if anyinadvertent [airspace] violation does take place, the incident willbe promptly investigated and the Headquarters (HQ) of the other Air Forceinformed of the results without delay, through diplomatic channels.” It isindeed possible that, to avoid embarrassment, India did not report theincident to Pakistan hoping that the missile launch or the debris would gounnoticed.
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Second, sources in the Pakistan military have informed me that Pakistan hasnot ruled out the possibility that the launch was an intentional act togauge Pakistan’s war readiness and/or ability to track India’s BrahMos. Ifanything, Pakistan’s tracking the missile from its launch until itsdetonation has demonstrated Pakistan’s capability to track and counter suchattacks. There are reportslinkthatPakistan even considered its own retaliatory strike.
Third, the missile reportedly link flew atan altitude of 40,000 feet and endangered international and domesticflights both in Indian and Pakistani airspace. One shudders to think aboutthe consequences if the missile had struck a passenger jet mid-flight.
Fourth, the Indian military has a dismal military safety record. From a wronglyclosed hatchlinkthatdamaged a $2.9 billion submarine to the crashlinkoftens of Indian fighter jets over the years due to poor maintenance, afterthis missile incident India owes the world a thorough explanation ofwhether it has the required safety protocols in place to stop suchincidents from occurring in the future.
Fifth, there have been multiple incidents of uranium theftlinkandtrading in India with its citizens having been arrested while smugglinguranium. While India has left no stone unturned to malign Pakistan and makesuperfluous claims that its nuclear arsenal can fall in the hands of theTaliban, the BrahMos incident raises the specter that Indian missiles andnuclear weapons can one day fall in the hands of rogue trigger happyHindutva fanatics who have openlylink calledfor war with Pakistan.
Over the years, the biggest casualty of India and Pakistan’s animosity hasbeen mutual trust. While India has said that it would conduct a high-levelinquiry into this incident, given India’s history of failing to fulfill itspromises, Pakistan will most likely reject India’s findings. It is alsohighly unlikely that India will agree to a joint probe with Pakistan giventhe sensitivity of data and technology involved. It is, therefore,vital that the United Nations, through one of its bodies, convene animpartial probe into this incident led by weapons experts. If this was anintentional act by India to provoke Pakistan, the global community mustunequivocally condemn India for its brazen disregard of internationalnorms. However, if this was an “accidental launch” as claimed, then Indiamust be asked to come clean and prove to the world that its weapons systemsincorporate safety protocols and are in safe hands. India owes it to theworld to prove that its hands are clean. Indeed, the fate of 2 billionpeople hangs by a thread.
*Hassan Aslam Shad is an international lawyer and a graduate of Harvard LawSchool. He can be reached at veritas@post.harvard.edu.*
