The Ababeel marks a significant development in Pakistan’s missilecapabilities. It is the country’s first medium-range ballistic missile(MRBM) designed for surface-to-surface use. One of its distinguishingfeatures is the reported capacity to carry Multiple IndependentlyTargetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs). The unveiling of this three-stage,solid-fuel missile took place during a test conducted on January 24, 2017.
The Ababeel’s developmental timeline likely began in the mid to late 2000s.Its fundamental design shares similarities with other solid-fuel MRBMs inPakistan’s arsenal, such as the Shaheen II and Shaheen III, as well asChina’s CSS-7 SRBM. In 2010, reports surfaced about Pakistani engineers,with Chinese assistance, making advances in MIRV technology. MIRVtechnology allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads, eachindividually programmed to target different objectives.
The sole known flight test of the Ababeel took place on January 24, 2017,when it was launched from a site in Winder, Pakistan’s southern coast. Thetest’s flight range fell significantly short of the missile’s reportedmaximum range of 2,200 km. This discrepancy suggests that the test mighthave aimed at assessing other aspects of the missile’s design, rather thanreaching its maximum range. Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relationsoffice emphasized that the test was intended to validate various design andtechnical parameters.
The Ababeel is a three-stage, solid-fuel MRBM with a reported maximum rangeof 2,200 km. The missile’s exact length is unknown, but the swollen nosecone section is estimated to be 1.7 meters in diameter. The claim that theAbabeel employs MIRV technology remains unverified and a subject of debate.Reports suggest that the missile can be equipped with both nuclear andconventional warheads.
There are doubts regarding Pakistan’s ability to successfully implementMIRV technology. Miniaturizing MIRV warheads is a challenging task, and itis unclear if Pakistan has developed a small enough nuclear warhead forMIRV application. Additionally, the development of a Post-Boost ControlVehicle or ‘bus’ involves intricate engineering processes, and it’suncertain if Pakistan possesses the required expertise and infrastructure.
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Nevertheless, Pakistan has demonstrated proficiency in certain MIRV-relatedtechnologies, including the use of small, liquid-fueled retrogradestabilizing rockets for a post-separation attitude control system (PSAC).If Pakistan overcame these challenges, it likely received foreign support,with suspicions pointing to China.
The introduction of MIRV technology in the region has significantimplications. It may contribute to regional security instability, as itindicates an arms race between India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s developmentof MIRV-capable missiles is aimed at enhancing the survivability of itsballistic missiles in the face of growing regional Ballistic MissileDefense (BMD) systems. This development adds complexity to the securitydynamics in Southern Asia.