ISLAMABAD: The coordinated terrorist attacks across Balochistan on January31, 2026, claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army, resulted in the martyrdomof 31 civilians and 17 security personnel, prompting a swiftcounter-operation by Pakistani forces that eliminated 145 militants in thefollowing 40 hours. This violence, described by provincial authorities asone of the deadliest episodes in decades, targeted multiple districtsincluding Quetta, Gwadar and Pasni, underscoring the persistent challengeposed by separatist elements in the province. The timing of these audaciousstrikes aligns with broader regional dynamics, serving as a stark reminderthat instability in Balochistan could undermine Pakistan’s strategicinitiatives at a critical juncture.
The attacks coincide with heightened speculation surrounding potentialmilitary action against Iran, which shares a 900-kilometre border withBalochistan. Reports indicate that Israel has been advocating foraggressive measures by the United States under President Donald Trump topursue regime change in Tehran, potentially leading to fragmentationsimilar to experiences in Sudan, Somalia and Libya. Such developments woulddirectly impact Pakistan, as any escalation could spill over intoBalochistan through refugee flows, cross-border militancy or heightenedinsurgent activity exploiting the porous frontier.
At the heart of Balochistan’s strategic value lies the China-PakistanEconomic Corridor, with Gwadar Port emerging as its centrepiece. The portis advancing towards an enhanced role in regional connectivity,facilitating trade routes from China to the Arabian Sea and beyond. Recentviolence threatens these investments, as militants have historicallytargeted CPEC-related infrastructure and personnel. The audacious nature ofthe latest strikes raises concerns over the security of ongoing projects,potentially deterring further Chinese engagement and complicatingPakistan’s efforts to position Gwadar as a viable alternative tocompetitors like Iran’s Chabahar Port.
Pakistan has intensified marketing of its critical minerals sector, withvast deposits predominantly located in Balochistan. These resources,including copper, gold and rare earth elements, are essential for globalenergy transitions and advanced technologies. The Reko Diq copper-goldproject stands out as a flagship initiative, with international financingcommitments such as $1.25 billion from the US Export-Import Bank andsupport from institutions like the Asian Development Bank. These dealspromise substantial economic benefits, including export revenues and jobcreation, but recent terrorism serves as a wakeup call that uncheckedinstability could jeopardise foreign investment and delay exploitation ofthese assets.
The surge in attacks also reflects an evolving alliance between India andIsrael against Pakistan’s interests. As Islamabad pursues greaterself-reliance and contemplates reduced dependence on the InternationalMonetary Fund, external actors appear intent on destabilising key economicdrivers. Allegations from Pakistani officials point to foreign backing forgroups like the BLA, aimed at portraying the province as insecure andundermining initiatives like CPEC and mineral development. This externalinterference exacerbates internal grievances, necessitating a comprehensivepolicy review to address root causes while bolstering counter-terrorismmeasures.
The Reko Diq reserves, estimated to hold billions of tonnes of ore withsignificant copper and gold content, have attracted substantial foreigninterest, including from Barrick Gold, which holds a major stake alongsidePakistani entities. Projected to generate billions in free cash flow overdecades, the project could transform Pakistan’s economy if security allowsfull operationalisation. However, persistent militancy risks delayingtimelines, with production eyed for 2028, and could erode investorconfidence amid competing global demands for critical minerals.
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These developments demand urgent course correction in Balochistan policy.Business as usual has proven insufficient against evolving threats thatblend local separatism with international geopolitical manoeuvring.Enhanced intelligence sharing, community engagement, infrastructureprotection and diplomatic efforts to counter external sponsorship areessential. Failure to adapt could forfeit economic dividends from CPEC andminerals, while inviting broader regional instability linked to the Irancrisis.
Pakistan’s response must balance kinetic operations with long-termdevelopment to secure Balochistan’s potential. The province’s resources andlocation position it as a linchpin for national prosperity, yetvulnerability to terror undermines this vision. Policymakers face a pivotalmoment to integrate security reforms with inclusive governance, ensuringthat strategic assets serve collective advancement rather than becomingflashpoints.
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