ISLAMABAD: The US Trump administration’s exclusion of Pakistan from a keycritical minerals summit, while extending invitations to India and otherpartners, highlights shifting geopolitical priorities in securing supplychains amid rivalry with China.
The Trump administration’s decision to exclude Pakistan from a prominentcritical minerals conference, while inviting India, underscores the complexdynamics shaping US foreign policy in South Asia. This development comesagainst the backdrop of intensified efforts by Washington to diversifyglobal supply chains away from China’s dominance in rare earths and otheressential resources vital for defence, semiconductors, renewable energy,and artificial intelligence technologies. China controls over 60 per centof global rare earth mining and up to 87 per cent of refining capacity forkey minerals like lithium, cobalt, and graphite, prompting urgent USinitiatives to build resilient alternatives through alliances and bilateraldeals.
The exclusion is particularly notable given Pakistan’s proactive outreachto the Trump administration on critical minerals. In recent months,Islamabad highlighted its untapped reserves, estimated by some officials attrillions of dollars in value, particularly in regions like Balochistan,including copper, antimony, and potential rare earth elements. Ahigh-profile memorandum of understanding was signed with a US firm formineral development, accompanied by promises of access to hydrocarbons andstrategic resources. These gestures aligned with President Trump’s emphasison transactional diplomacy and reducing dependence on adversarialsuppliers. Yet, despite such engagements, Pakistan was notably absent fromhigh-level gatherings like the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerialhosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and related discussions underframeworks such as Pax Silica.
India’s inclusion in these forums reflects its established role in US-ledinitiatives. New Delhi has been a member of the Minerals SecurityPartnership since 2023 and participated in Quad efforts on criticalminerals. Recent invitations extended to Indian officials, includingExternal Affairs Minister S Jaishankar for the February 2026 ministerialand participation in G7 finance ministers’ talks on supply chainresilience, signal continued strategic alignment. This occurs even amidtrade frictions, such as US tariffs on Indian goods, indicating thatminerals security overrides temporary economic disputes. India’s growingcapabilities in processing and its position as a counterweight to China inthe Indo-Pacific further bolster its relevance in Washington’s calculus.
Analysts point to several factors explaining Pakistan’s omission. WhilePakistan offered promising reserves and swift commitments throughmilitary-backed channels, challenges persist in operationalizing theseassets due to security concerns in mining regions, limited infrastructure,and unproven commercial viability at scale. The US prioritizes partnerswith established processing capacities, investment frameworks, andalignment in broader technology ecosystems. Pax Silica, launched in late2025 with founding members including Japan, South Korea, Australia, andothers, focuses on advanced manufacturing and AI infrastructure alongsideminerals, areas where Pakistan’s contributions remain nascent compared toIndia’s industrial base and multilateral engagements.
Geopolitical considerations also play a role. The Trump administration’sSouth Asia approach has oscillated, with initial warming toward Pakistanfollowing mediation claims in regional conflicts and tariff concessions.However, deeper strategic ties with India, including defence pacts andtechnology cooperation under initiatives like iCET, appear to takeprecedence for long-term supply chain security. Pakistan’s close economiclinks with China, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, mayintroduce perceived risks in sensitive minerals partnerships, even asIslamabad seeks diversification. This selective engagement reflectsWashington’s preference for reliable, scalable contributors in counteringChina’s supply dominance.
The implications for Pakistan are significant. Exclusion from such forumslimits access to funding, technical expertise, and joint ventures essentialfor developing its mineral sector. It risks reinforcing perceptions ofinconsistent US policy toward Islamabad, potentially pushing Pakistancloser to alternative partners like China for resource extraction. For theregion, this highlights how critical minerals have become a lens forbroader power competition, influencing alliances and economic opportunities.
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Broader US strategy emphasizes bilateral deals and multilateralcoordination to mitigate vulnerabilities. Executive orders andproclamations have directed negotiations for secure supplies, includingpotential price supports and trade measures. Partnerships withresource-rich nations aim to accelerate upstream investment and processing,but selectivity ensures focus on viable, low-risk collaborations. India’sproactive participation in these mechanisms contrasts with Pakistan’s morerecent, yet unconsolidated, overtures.
In conclusion, while Pakistan’s mineral potential holds strategic appeal,its absence from the summit reflects US prioritization of establishedpartners and operational readiness over promises alone. This approach seeksto build diversified, trusted supply chains amid escalating global demandfor critical resources.
Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1966183
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