Title:Qatar Somalia Defence Pact Reshapes Gulf Influence Giving Strategic Blow to UAE in Horn Africa
ISLAMABAD: A significant geopolitical realignment is unfolding in the Horn of Africa as Qatar and Somalia have signed a new defence cooperation agreement, a move widely viewed as a direct setback to the United Arab Emirates’ long-standing security influence in the region. The development follows Somalia’s recent decision to cancel all defence and security arrangements with the UAE, underscoring intensifying rivalries among Gulf powers and their expanding contest for strategic leverage beyond the Arabian Peninsula.
The defence pact between Doha and Mogadishu was announced on Monday and is aimed at strengthening military relations, security coordination and institutional cooperation between the two countries. Somali officials described the agreement as part of a broader effort to rebuild national defence capabilities under transparent frameworks that respect state sovereignty. Qatar, for its part, framed the accord as support for Somalia’s stability and territorial integrity at a critical juncture for regional security.
This agreement comes only days after Somalia formally annulled defence and security accords with the UAE, citing concerns over sovereignty, lack of coordination with federal authorities and disagreements over foreign military activities on Somali soil. The cancellation effectively ended Emirati military training missions and security arrangements that had been in place for years, marking a dramatic reversal in bilateral defence relations between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi.
Regional analysts interpret Somalia’s decision as being shaped by Saudi Arabia’s growing diplomatic influence, particularly as Riyadh seeks to consolidate its leadership role across the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. Saudi policymakers have increasingly viewed unchecked Emirati activity in East Africa as a challenge to their own strategic priorities, especially amid diverging interests between the two Gulf allies in Yemen and other conflict theatres.
For Qatar, the defence agreement represents both an opportunity and a strategic signal. Doha has steadily rebuilt its regional partnerships following the end of the Gulf blockade and has positioned itself as a supporter of political unity in fragile states. Its cooperation with Somalia aligns with its broader diplomatic narrative of supporting internationally recognised governments and opposing unilateral arrangements that could fragment sovereign states.
The UAE’s involvement in Somalia had extended beyond military training to include investments in ports and logistics infrastructure, making it a key external actor in the country’s security and economic landscape. However, Somali authorities increasingly expressed discomfort with what they viewed as parallel security structures and external engagements with regional administrations, which they argued undermined federal authority and national cohesion.
Somalia’s leadership has emphasised that future defence partnerships must operate strictly within frameworks approved by the federal government. Officials have acknowledged past Emirati assistance but maintain that evolving security challenges require partnerships that are more transparent, accountable and aligned with national priorities. The shift toward Qatar reflects Mogadishu’s effort to reset its external security relationships on these terms.
Read Top Stories
The broader regional context is marked by intensifying competition among Gulf states for influence along vital maritime corridors linking the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Control over, or access to, security partnerships in the Horn of Africa is increasingly seen as essential for safeguarding trade routes, energy supplies and strategic depth amid global economic uncertainty and regional instability.
Saudi Arabia’s reported encouragement of Somalia’s policy shift highlights a recalibration within the Gulf alliance system itself. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain partners on many fronts, their diverging approaches in Yemen and the Horn of Africa have exposed underlying strategic differences. Supporting Somalia’s distancing from the UAE allows Saudi Arabia to assert its own leadership vision for Red Sea security.
Despite the abrupt end to defence cooperation, Somalia has stopped short of severing diplomatic ties with the UAE. Embassies remain operational, and officials on both sides have signalled an interest in maintaining political and economic dialogue. This suggests Mogadishu is pursuing a carefully balanced approach, seeking to assert sovereignty without triggering a full diplomatic rupture with a powerful regional actor.
For Somalia, the immediate challenge lies in translating new defence agreements into tangible improvements in security capacity while avoiding overdependence on any single external partner. The country continues to face internal threats from militant groups and requires sustained international assistance to stabilise its security institutions and protect critical infrastructure.
Observers note that Qatar’s involvement, if coordinated closely with Somali authorities, could contribute to professional training, intelligence sharing and defence institution-building. However, the long-term impact will depend on how effectively regional rivalries are managed and whether Somalia can maintain autonomy amid competing external interests.
As Gulf rivalries increasingly play out across Africa, the Qatar–Somalia defence pact underscores how smaller states are navigating great-power competition to their advantage. The agreement marks a new chapter in Horn of Africa geopolitics, one that may reshape security alignments and influence patterns well beyond Somalia’s borders in the months ahead.