ISLAMABAD: Recent analysis from a prominent U.S. military journal “War onthe Rocks” highlights how New Delhi appeared to misjudge Islamabad’smilitary capabilities and determination during the brief but intenseconfrontation in May 2025. The four-day conflict, triggered by a terroristattack in Indian-administered Kashmir, saw India launch deep strikes underOperation Sindoor, targeting alleged militant infrastructure insidePakistan. However, Pakistan’s robust response, including effective use ofadvanced air defense systems and counter-strikes, reportedly inflictedlosses on Indian assets, underscoring a pattern of underestimation by thelarger neighbor.
The conflict began on April 22, 2025, with a deadly militant assault inPahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killing over two dozen civilians, mostlytargeted for their faith. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-backedgroups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, prompting swiftretaliation. On May 7, Indian forces executed precision missile and dronestrikes on nine sites across Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjabprovince, marking one of the most extensive operations since 1971. Indianofficials described the action as measured and focused on terroristfacilities, claiming significant militant casualties without civilian harm.
Pakistan condemned the strikes as an act of war, reporting civilian deathsand vowing retaliation. Islamabad launched Operation Bunyan Marsoos,involving drone, missile, and air engagements against Indian militarytargets. Intense exchanges peaked on May 9-10, with Pakistan claiming tohave downed several Indian aircraft, including advanced fighters, usingChinese-origin systems. Independent assessments suggest both sidessustained losses, but Pakistan’s air defenses demonstrated unexpectedresilience against India’s stand-off weapons.
Analysts point to India’s apparent overconfidence in its technological edgeand escalation dominance. New Delhi’s strategy evolved from earlier crises,emphasizing direct cost imposition on Pakistan’s military-terrorist nexusrather than mere threats. This shift, building on the 2019 Balakot episode,aimed to degrade capabilities and deter future provocations. Yet, theoperation revealed gaps in Indian intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance, allowing Pakistan to respond effectively and contest theairspace.
Pakistan’s performance stemmed from integrated defenses, including HQ-9systems and PL-15 missiles, which countered Indian incursions. Reportsindicate India lost fighter jets, a setback attributed to underestimatingIslamabad’s resolve and modernization efforts. While India asserted downingPakistani assets and achieving tactical gains, the conflict ended in aU.S.-mediated ceasefire on May 10, highlighting escalation risks in anuclear-shadowed environment.
The episode exposed capability deficiencies on both sides. India identifiedneeds for enhanced air defenses, counter-drone measures, and persistentsurveillance, prompting investments in satellites and unmanned systems.Pakistan showcased its ability to punch above its weight, reinforcingperceptions of a perceived draw despite India’s broader militarysuperiority.
Strategic communications proved a weak point for New Delhi. Despiteoperational successes, India struggled to convey its narrative domesticallyand internationally, allowing Pakistan to shape perceptions of resilience.This failure underscored the importance of information operations in modernconflicts, where battlefield outcomes compete with narrative dominance.
Escalation control remained precarious. India’s assertion of measuredaction clashed with Pakistan’s view of aggression, drawing urgentdiplomatic intervention from the United States and others. The swiftceasefire prevented wider war but raised questions about future deterrence,as both sides may now perceive greater space for limited action.
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The conflict’s aftermath saw India reaffirm its “new normal” of respondingto terrorism with military force, dismissing nuclear coercion. Pakistan,emboldened by its defensive showing, emphasized calibrated escalation tomatch or exceed Indian moves. Analysts warn that such dynamics could lowerthresholds in future crises, increasing miscalculation risks.
Broader implications extend to regional stability. The episode testeddoctrines in a nuclearized South Asia, where conventional clashes riskrapid escalation. India’s push to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluffdemonstrated room for limited war, yet losses highlighted the costs ofunderestimation. Pakistan’s ability to impose pain reinforced its strategyof asymmetric deterrence.
Ultimately, the four-day war revealed enduring misperceptions between thenuclear rivals. New Delhi’s apparent underestimation of Islamabad’scapabilities and resolve led to tangible setbacks, even as both claimedvictory. Future interactions will likely feature heightened caution,bolstered defenses, and persistent diplomatic efforts to manage tensions.
Source:https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/deep-learning-from-operation-sindoor-five-takeaways-from-a-four-day-war
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