ISLAMABAD: The recent Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between SaudiArabia and Pakistan has sparked debate among defence analysts about whetherSouth Asia’s nuclear arsenal could influence the balance of power in theMiddle East. Professor Ashok Swain, a noted Indian defence analyst,highlighted the possibility that following Saudi Arabia’s pact withnuclear-armed Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates might pursue a similarsecurity arrangement with India, potentially extending South Asian nucleardeterrence dynamics into the Gulf region.
The agreement, signed on September 17, 2025, in Riyadh by Saudi CrownPrince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif,formalizes long-standing military ties between the two nations. It declaresthat any aggression against one country will be considered an attack onboth, aiming to strengthen joint deterrence and defence cooperation acrossvarious military domains. This pact builds on decades of collaboration,including Pakistani training of Saudi forces and historical troopdeployments, transforming informal relations into a binding strategicframework.
Analysts point out that the timing of the agreement coincides withheightened regional instability, including concerns over Israeli militaryactions and perceived uncertainties in traditional security guarantees.Saudi Arabia’s move reflects a strategic diversification effort to bolsterdeterrence amid evolving threats, particularly from Iran and other actors,while leveraging Pakistan’s established military capabilities. Thecomprehensive nature of the pact, encompassing “all military means,” hasfueled speculation about its implications for extended deterrence.
Pakistan maintains an estimated arsenal of nuclear warheads, developedprimarily as a counter to India’s conventional and nuclear superiority inSouth Asia. Since its nuclear tests in 1998, Islamabad has emphasized aposture focused on credible minimum deterrence without a declaredno-first-use policy. This contrasts with India’s no-first-use commitment,creating a delicate balance that has prevented escalation in past crisesbetween the two neighbours.
The introduction of Pakistan’s nuclear dimension into Middle Easternsecurity calculations introduces a novel element. Saudi Arabia has longsought enhanced deterrence against regional rivals, and the pact with anuclear power marks the first such arrangement for a Gulf state. Whileofficials from both sides have described the agreement as defensive andhave walked back explicit nuclear commitments, the ambiguity surrounding”all military means” contributes to strategic signaling in a volatileenvironment.
Professor Swain’s observation underscores a potential reciprocal dynamic.As Saudi Arabia formalizes ties with Pakistan, the UAE, which enjoys robustdefence and economic relations with India, could deepen its securityframework with New Delhi. Recent bilateral engagements between India andthe UAE, including joint defence committee meetings and maritime securityagreements in 2025, already demonstrate growing military interoperability,though no mutual defence pact on the scale of the Saudi-Pakistan agreementhas been signed.
India and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, with India possessing around 180warheads and advanced delivery systems, and Pakistan pursuing tacticalnuclear options, have historically maintained a tense equilibrium in SouthAsia. Any spillover into the Middle East could complicate existing powerbalances, where Israel remains the region’s sole undeclared nuclear power.This cross-regional linkage raises concerns about proliferation risks andaltered deterrence postures.
The pact has drawn cautious responses from major stakeholders. India hasindicated it will study the implications for national security and regionalstability, while emphasizing that longstanding ties with Saudi Arabiaremain unaffected. Broader international observers note that suchagreements could encourage further alignments, potentially reshapingalliances beyond traditional frameworks dominated by Western powers.
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Despite the strategic significance, experts caution againstoverinterpreting the nuclear aspect. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remainsIndia-centric, designed for national survival rather than power projectionin distant regions. The agreement primarily enhances conventionalcooperation, intelligence sharing, and joint exercises, providing Riyadhwith greater strategic flexibility without necessitating overt nuclearsharing.
This development highlights the interconnectedness of global securitylandscapes. As Gulf states seek diversified partnerships amid shiftinggreat-power commitments, South Asian nuclear realities may indirectlycontribute to deterrence calculations in the Middle East. Whether thisfosters balance or introduces new instabilities remains a subject ofongoing analysis among policymakers and scholars.
The evolving ties between these regions underscore the need for dialogue tomitigate risks. With nuclear capabilities now implicitly factored intobroader Middle Eastern equations, the potential for reciprocal alignmentsinvolving India and the UAE could further transform the geopoliticalarchitecture.
Mutual Defence Agreement
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