ISLAMABAD: Turkey’s evolving defence posture toward Pakistan, particularlysuggestions of deeper strategic and potentially nuclear-adjacentcooperation, has triggered renewed debate among global security analystsabout Ankara’s long-term geopolitical trajectory. Framed by recentcommentary in The National Interest, the discussion highlights how Turkey’sgrowing defence-industrial ties with Pakistan intersect with regionaldeterrence politics, NATO tensions, and South Asian nuclear stability.While no formal nuclear pact exists, the narrative itself is reshapingthreat perceptions and diplomatic calculations across multiple regions.
At the centre of this debate is Turkey’s gradual diversification away fromexclusive Western defence dependence, driven by strained relations with theUnited States and the European Union. Ankara’s pursuit of strategicautonomy has manifested in indigenous weapons programs, expanded armsexports, and closer military cooperation with non-Western partners.Pakistan, already a long-standing defence collaborator, fits naturally intothis framework, particularly as both states share concerns over regionalrivals and seek leverage within shifting multipolar power structures.
The National Interest article argues that Turkey’s deepening defence tieswith Pakistan raise questions because of Islamabad’s status as anuclear-armed state with advanced missile capabilities. Although Turkeyremains a non-nuclear weapon state under the Non-Proliferation Treaty,analysts suggest that enhanced cooperation in missile technology,command-and-control systems, or strategic aerospace platforms could haveindirect nuclear implications. Such cooperation, even if conventional onpaper, may influence regional deterrence equations, particularly in SouthAsia and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Pakistan, for its part, views defence partnerships through the lens ofstrategic balance with India and long-term military self-reliance.Collaboration with Turkey has already produced tangible outcomes, includingnaval modernization, aerospace upgrades, and joint production initiatives.Turkish firms have supplied corvettes, avionics upgrades, and unmannedsystems, reinforcing Pakistan’s conventional deterrence. Any suggestion ofa “nuclear dimension,” however, is officially rejected by Islamabad, whichmaintains that its strategic programme remains sovereign and tightlycontrolled.
From Ankara’s perspective, engagement with Pakistan also serves symbolicand political objectives. Turkey has increasingly positioned itself as aleader within the Muslim world, advocating strategic solidarity beyondrhetorical diplomacy. Defence cooperation with Pakistan, a major militarypower in the Islamic world, enhances Turkey’s global profile and bargainingpower. Critics argue that such symbolism risks being misinterpretedinternationally, particularly when framed in nuclear terms by Westernstrategic commentators.
Regional reactions underscore why perception matters as much as policy.India closely monitors Turkey-Pakistan military ties, already strained byAnkara’s vocal positions on Kashmir. Any insinuation of nuclear-relatedcooperation amplifies Indian threat assessments and could influence forceposture adjustments. Similarly, NATO allies remain sensitive to Turkey’sdefence engagements outside alliance frameworks, especially followingAnkara’s acquisition of Russian systems and its increasingly independentforeign policy orientation.
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Experts cited in The National Interest caution that the danger lies less inan imminent nuclear pact and more in cumulative strategic signalling. In anera of heightened mistrust, even speculative narratives can acceleratesecurity dilemmas. As Turkey expands defence exports and Pakistan seeksdiversified partnerships, the absence of transparent communication fuelsassumptions that may harden into policy responses, including arms racing ordiplomatic pushback.
Ultimately, the Turkey-Pakistan defence relationship reflects broadertransformations in global order, where middle powers assert autonomy amiddeclining unipolarity. While claims of a nuclear defence pact remainunsubstantiated, the discourse itself reveals anxieties surroundingnon-proliferation, alliance cohesion, and regional stability. Managingthese perceptions through clarity, restraint, and diplomacy will becritical to preventing strategic miscalculations in an increasinglyinterconnected security environment.
Source:https://nationalinterest.org
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