ISLAMABAD: Recent disclosures by Pakistani and Turkish officials haveignited intense speculation over whether a proposed trilateral defence pactbetween Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey includes a mutual aggressionclause, similar to NATO’s Article 5, where an attack on one signatory wouldbe treated as an assault on all. Pakistan’s Minister for Defence ProductionRaza Hayat Harraj confirmed on January 14, 2026, that a draft agreement hasbeen prepared after nearly a year of negotiations, raising questions aboutits scope and implications for regional security.
The discussions stem from a pre-existing bilateral framework betweenPakistan and Saudi Arabia, formalised in September 2025 as the StrategicMutual Defence Agreement. This pact states that any aggression againsteither country shall be considered an aggression against both, providing astrong collective defence commitment. Signed in Riyadh by Prime MinisterShehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it emerged amidheightened Middle East instability, including spillover effects fromconflicts involving Israel and Iran, marking a significant upgrade inlong-standing military ties.
Harraj emphasised in an interview with Reuters that the emerging trilateralarrangement is distinct from the Saudi-Pakistani bilateral accord. He notedthat the draft has been circulating among the three capitals for the lastten months, with ongoing deliberations required for final consensus. Thisdevelopment suggests a deliberate effort to expand the security umbrella,potentially incorporating Turkey’s advanced defence capabilities andaddressing shared concerns over external influences in the region.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan addressed media reports during a pressconference in Istanbul on January 15, 2026, confirming that talks haveindeed occurred but clarifying that no agreement has been signed yet. Heframed the negotiations within President Tayyip Erdogan’s broader visionfor an inclusive regional cooperation platform aimed at fostering trustamong nations to prevent instability, terrorism and external hegemonies.Fidan’s cautious tone underscores the need for mutual assurance beforeformalising any binding commitments.
The potential inclusion of a mutual aggression clause in the trilateraldraft would represent a major strategic evolution, mirroring the bilateralpact’s language. Analysts point out that such a provision could enhancedeterrence against common threats, including tensions with Iran anduncertainties in broader geopolitical dynamics. Pakistan’s nuclearcapabilities, Saudi Arabia’s financial resources and Turkey’smilitary-industrial expertise would complement each other, creating aformidable axis independent of traditional Western alliances.
Regional observers note that the initiative reflects growing self-relianceamong these powers amid doubts over external guarantees, particularly fromthe United States. The bilateral Saudi-Pakistani agreement already providesSaudi Arabia with a comprehensive defensive framework encompassing variousmilitary means, though nuclear aspects remain ambiguous and unconfirmedofficially. Extending this to Turkey could further diversify securityoptions for all involved.
Despite the progress indicated by the existence of a draft, significanthurdles remain before any pact becomes operational. Fidan’s emphasis onbroader inclusivity suggests that the final form may prioritise dialogueand confidence-building over immediate collective defence obligations.Ongoing meetings highlight the complexity of aligning strategic interestsacross South Asia and the Middle East.
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The proposed trilateral cooperation arrives at a time of persistentvolatility in the region, where flare-ups over the past two years haveprompted renewed focus on collective security mechanisms. If finalised witha strong mutual aggression clause, the agreement could reshape powerbalances, offering a bulwark against perceived threats and promotingstability through shared responsibilities.
Experts highlight complementary strengths: Pakistan contributes manpower,ballistic missiles and nuclear deterrence; Saudi Arabia provides economicclout; and Turkey offers operational experience alongside a robust defenceindustry. This synergy could foster joint initiatives in technologytransfer, training and procurement, strengthening resilience againstexternal pressures.
While no final consensus has been reached, the sustained talks over tenmonths signal serious intent. The outcome will depend on resolvingdifferences and building the trust Fidan described as essential forovercoming regional distrust. Until then, the prospect of an “attack on oneis attack on all” clause continues to fuel debate on emerging alliances inthe Muslim world.
Source:https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-saudi-turkey-defence-deal-pipeline-pakistani-minister-says-2026-01-15
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