ISLAMABAD: Recent geopolitical developments have sparked intensespeculation that Egypt and Indonesia may soon join a burgeoning defencealliance centered on Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. A report fromModern Diplomacy highlights how a draft trilateral defence agreement,prepared after nearly a year of negotiations, could evolve into a widersecurity bloc. This potential expansion introduces fresh uncertainties inthe Middle East and beyond, as major Muslim-majority nations reassess theirstrategic alignments in response to evolving threats and great powercompetition.
The core of this emerging axis traces back to the Strategic Mutual DefenceAgreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September 2025. Thispact treats aggression against one as an attack on both, drawing parallelsto NATO’s collective defence clause. Pakistan’s Minister for DefenceProduction recently confirmed that a draft trilateral accord with Turkey isnow in the pipeline, following ten months of deliberations. Turkishofficials have acknowledged ongoing talks without confirming a final deal,underscoring the cautious yet determined push toward formal cooperation.
Analysts point to shared security concerns driving this collaboration.Pakistan faces persistent tensions with India, Saudi Arabia contends withrivalry from Iran, and Turkey grapples with Kurdish issues alongsidestrained relations within NATO. The proposed framework aims to foster jointarms production, intelligence sharing, and contingency planning, creating aplatform to counter terrorism, instability, and perceived externalhegemonies in a volatile region. This independent bloc signals a strategicpivot away from over-reliance on Western security guarantees.
A key element fueling speculation about Egypt and Indonesia’s involvementcomes from Modern Diplomacy’s analysis of the axis as an alternativeregional order. Neither fully aligned with the U.S.-led system nor theChina-Russia partnership, it could attract other prominent Muslim nationsseeking greater autonomy. Egypt’s large military establishment andstrategic position in North Africa make it a natural candidate, whileIndonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, brings demographicweight and non-aligned foreign policy traditions to any expanded grouping.
Calls for broadening the alliance have gained traction from influentialvoices. A former Qatari prime minister recently urged the formation of astrategic defence pact including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, andPakistan, describing it as an urgent need for regional stability. Such anexpanded framework would incorporate military, economic, and politicaldimensions, serving as a permanent credible bloc rather than acrisis-response mechanism. This reflects growing overlap in interestsacross South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
The potential inclusion of Egypt and Indonesia carries profoundimplications for regional power balances. Egypt’s participation couldbridge Arab and non-Arab Muslim states, enhancing the bloc’s geographicreach from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea. Indonesia’sinvolvement would extend influence into Southeast Asia, adding a non-Arabperspective and bolstering the alliance’s global legitimacy. Combined withPakistan’s nuclear capabilities, Saudi Arabia’s financial resources, andTurkey’s advanced defence industry, an enlarged grouping could rivalexisting security architectures.
Observers note that this development arises amid broader shifts in globaldiplomacy. Fluctuating U.S. policies, concerns over Iran’s regionalambitions, and the aftermath of conflicts in Gaza and elsewhere haveprompted Muslim nations to pursue diversified partnerships. The trilateraldraft, if finalized and expanded, may isolate Iran further, pushing ittoward deeper ties with Russia and China or diplomatic accommodations withneighbours.
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Critics caution that internal differences among potential members couldhinder cohesion. Historical rivalries, such as past tensions between Turkeyand Saudi Arabia in Libya, and varying alignments with global powers,present challenges. Egypt maintains close ties with India, while Indonesiahas long adhered to non-alignment principles, historically avoiding formalmilitary blocs. These factors may temper enthusiasm for rapid expansion.
Nevertheless, the momentum behind this axis appears undeniable. Recentjoint statements by foreign ministers from several Muslim countries,including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Indonesia, on issueslike Gaza peace efforts, demonstrate increasing coordination. Suchdiplomatic convergence lays groundwork for deeper security collaboration,potentially transforming the proposed pact into a more inclusivearrangement.
As negotiations progress, the international community watches closely forsigns of formal announcements. The prospect of Egypt and Indonesia joiningcould mark a turning point in Muslim-world security architecture,introducing new variables into great power dynamics. Whether this evolvesinto a robust alternative to existing alliances remains uncertain, yet itsimplications for stability in the Middle East, South Asia, and beyond areprofound and far-reaching.
Source:https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/15/the-pakistan-saudi-turkey-axis-a-draft-for-a-new-regional-order/
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