ISLAMABAD: Rana Mashhood Ahmad Khan, Chairman of the Prime Minister’s YouthProgramme, has declared that Pakistan is poised to exit its ongoingInternational Monetary Fund programme by June 2026, marking a pivotal steptowards full economic independence. Speaking at a diaspora event in Londonon Saturday, he emphasized that sustained policy measures have restoredinvestor confidence and positioned the nation on a trajectory ofself-reliance, reducing the need for external bailout support after decadesof recurring engagements with the Fund.
The announcement has generated considerable anticipation regardingPakistan’s economic trajectory, as the country has historically relied onmultiple IMF programmes to navigate balance-of-payments crises. Mashhood’sstatement builds on earlier assertions from August 2025, when he describedthe economy as progressing steadily under fiscal discipline and structuraladjustments. This optimism stems from observable improvements in keyindicators, raising questions about whether Pakistan can finally break freefrom its prolonged cycle of IMF dependency.
A major pillar supporting this outlook is the robust growth in workers’remittances, which have provided a vital lifeline to the external account.In fiscal year 2025, remittances reached a record $38.3 billion, accordingto State Bank of Pakistan data, reflecting renewed trust among overseasPakistanis. More recently, inflows surged to $3.59 billion in December 2025alone, marking a 16.5 percent year-on-year increase and contributing tocumulative figures of $19.7 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2026.Such inflows have bolstered foreign exchange availability and supportedhousehold consumption amid global uncertainties.
Foreign exchange reserves have also shown steady accumulation, enhancingexternal buffers. By late December 2025, total liquid reserves stood atapproximately $21 billion, with State Bank holdings reaching $15.915billion after a $4.2 billion rise over the calendar year. Projections fromthe central bank indicate reserves could climb to $17.8 billion by June2026, assuming continued official inflows and prudent management. Thisrebuilding follows periods of depletion and has coincided with IMFdisbursements under the current Extended Fund Facility.
The current IMF arrangement, a 37-month Extended Fund Facility valued at $7billion approved in 2024, along with the Resilience and SustainabilityFacility, has facilitated stability. Recent reviews in December 2025unlocked about $1.2 billion, bringing total disbursements to around $3.3billion. The programme has emphasized fiscal consolidation, achieving aprimary surplus in fiscal year 2025, while addressing inflation andexternal vulnerabilities. Despite these advancements, the path to exitremains conditional on sustained reforms.
Mashhood attributed past slowdowns to IMF-linked policies post-2018, whichhe claimed constrained growth through austerity measures. In contrast, thepresent administration’s approach has prioritized recovery, exportpromotion, and productivity enhancements. He underscored the role ofyouth-led entrepreneurship in building reserves, aligning with initiativesunder the Prime Minister’s Youth Programme that focus on skillsdevelopment, innovation, and business loans to empower the demographicdividend.
While government officials express confidence, analysts note that exitingthe IMF programme requires consistent performance in revenue mobilization,export diversification, and debt management. Pakistan’s economy hasdemonstrated resilience with inflation moderating and growth recoveringmodestly, yet structural challenges persist, including energy sectorviability and fiscal pressures. The emphasis on diaspora confidence andremittances highlights the importance of human capital abroad in drivinginward flows.
Read Top Stories
Sustained focus on exports and private sector productivity could acceleratereserve buildup, potentially reducing reliance on multilateral financing.Mashhood’s remarks serve as a motivational signal to overseas Pakistanis,reinforcing that collective contributions are instrumental in achievingself-sufficiency. The coming months will test whether these projectionsmaterialize amid global economic headwinds and domestic implementationcapacity.
The announcement underscores a broader narrative of optimism, positioningmid-2026 as a potential turning point. If achieved, it would represent asignificant departure from Pakistan’s history of frequent IMF engagements,fostering greater sovereignty in economic policymaking.
Source:https://tribune.com.pk/story/2586507/pakistan-to-exit-imf-programme-this-year
Tags: Pakistan, IMF, State Bank of Pakistan, Rana Mashhood Ahmad Khan,Workers Remittances
ogimageimage-name
