ISLAMABAD: India’s acquisition of the advanced Russian S-400 air defencesystem was hailed as a major strategic enhancement for the Indian AirForce, particularly following its demonstrated effectiveness duringOperation Sindoor in May 2025. However, a recent analysis citing expertsfrom the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and The Wire highlightsgrowing concerns over long-term sustainment. The system’s dependence onRussia for missiles and maintenance, compounded by Moscow’s wartimeconstraints, raises questions about India’s air defence reliability inprolonged conflicts, creating suspense around whether this powerfulcapability can endure beyond initial deployments.
The core issue stems from Russia’s production struggles with the S-400 amidthe ongoing Ukraine conflict. Analysts note that Moscow is expendinginterceptors at a rate faster than it can manufacture them, strainingstockpiles critical for exports. Sanctions have severed access to Westernmicroelectronics, forcing reliance on alternative sources, including China,for essential components like high-performance printed circuit boardlaminates used in radars, fire-control systems, and missile guidance. Thisshift introduces uncertainties in quality and availability, potentiallycompromising system performance over time.
India’s $5.43 billion deal signed in 2018 for five S-400 regiments has seenthree units delivered and operationalized along key borders, with theremaining two delayed to 2026-2027 due to Russia’s prioritization of itsown military needs. During Operation Sindoor, the system contributed tointercepting threats effectively, boosting confidence in its capabilities.Yet, experts argue that battlefield success masks deeper vulnerabilities inreplenishment, as Russia diverts resources to domestic use, leaving exportcustomers like India facing potential shortages in interceptors and spareparts.
The RUSI report emphasizes that the S-400’s production relies heavily onimported microelectronics, previously sourced from Europe, which Russia nowstruggles to replicate locally. Sanctions have disrupted these supplychains, leading to higher costs and reduced reliability. Engineersreportedly preferred US-origin materials for critical electronics, butconstraints have pushed adoption of substitutes, risking degradation inradar accuracy and missile guidance, especially against advanced threats.This dependency creates a strategic paradox for India, as sustainment couldhinge on geopolitical factors beyond New Delhi’s control.
Further complicating matters is Russia’s increasing turn towards China forcomponents, including tooling for interceptor production and radarrefurbishment. As per assessments, this reliance means that in ahypothetical contingency involving China, India’s S-400 operations mightface indirect constraints from Beijing’s influence over supply priorities.Senior Indian officials have expressed alarm at this “unthinkablereliance,” warning it could jeopardize wartime endurance and operationalautonomy if inventory expansion proceeds without diversified support.
Efforts to mitigate these risks include proposals for a repair hub in Indiaby 2028, involving technology transfer and local partnerships with Russianmanufacturer Almaz-Antey. This aligns with India’s “Make in India”initiative, aiming to build domestic expertise for maintenance and reduceexternal dependencies. However, implementation remains in early stages, andfull independence from Russian supply chains may take years, leaving theIndian Air Force exposed in the interim to delays in upgrades andreplenishment.
The broader implications extend to India’s strategic posture in South Asia.While the S-400 provides robust defence against aircraft, drones, andmissiles up to 400 kilometres, sustainment challenges could limit its rolein high-intensity scenarios. Analysts recommend pragmatic reassessment,suggesting limited use against high-value targets to conserve missiles,alongside integration with indigenous systems to build resilience. Thisapproach would preserve the system’s value while addressing the gambleinherent in overreliance on a single supplier under sanctions pressure.
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In conclusion, India’s S-400 procurement represents a calculatedenhancement of air defence capabilities, yet the evolving supply chaindynamics underscore the need for urgent diversification. As geopoliticaltensions persist, the ability to sustain this advanced system willdetermine its true strategic worth, highlighting the delicate balancebetween immediate deterrence and long-term operational viability.
Source:https://m.thewire.in/article/security/why-indias-overreliance-on-russian-s-400-missile-defence-systems-is-a-strategic-gamble
Tags: India, Russia, S-400, RUSI, Indian Air Force
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