ISLAMABAD: Fresh insights into the intense four-day military standoffbetween Pakistan and India in May 2025 reveal that the Pakistan Air Forcehad prepared a targeted operation against India’s indigenous aircraftcarrier INS Vikrant, which was deployed in the Arabian Sea following thePahalgam terror attack. Intelligence indicated that the carrier, positionedto project power toward Pakistani waters, was withdrawn swiftly upondetection of heightened readiness from Pakistani forces, averting apotentially devastating strike that could have altered the course of theconflict. This near-clash underscores the fragile balance in South Asianmaritime security, where a single miscalculation might have led to broaderhostilities.
The crisis originated from the April 22, 2025, terrorist incident inPahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed 26 civilian lives and wasattributed by India to Pakistan-backed groups. In response, India launchedOperation Sindoor on May 7, involving precision strikes on alleged terrorinfrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. This promptedretaliatory actions, including drone and missile exchanges, drawing bothnations to the brink of sustained warfare before a US-mediated ceasefiretook effect on May 10. Throughout this period, naval assets played apivotal role in deterrence, with India’s deployment of INS Vikrantsignaling intent to enforce maritime dominance.
INS Vikrant, India’s first fully indigenously built aircraft carriercommissioned in 2022, represents a significant leap in New Delhi’sblue-water capabilities. Displacing around 45,000 tons and capable ofoperating up to 30-40 aircraft including MiG-29K fighters, the vessel wasmoved into the Northern Arabian Sea shortly after the Pahalgam attack.Satellite imagery from late April 2025 confirmed its positioning off theKarwar coast, approximately 600-700 kilometers from Pakistan’s shoreline,enabling potential operations against key ports like Karachi and Gwadar.Analysts noted that such a forward posture could disrupt up to 60 percentof Pakistan’s maritime trade through blockade threats.
However, unlike American super-carriers protected by extensive carrierstrike groups featuring multiple destroyers, cruisers, submarines, anddedicated air defense layers, INS Vikrant operates with a comparativelylimited escort formation. During the 2025 standoff, the Indian carrierbattle group included destroyers and frigates, but lacked the robustlayered defenses typical of US Navy deployments. This vulnerability,combined with Pakistan’s anti-ship capabilities includingsubmarine-launched cruise missiles and air-launched munitions, made it afeasible target for preemptive action if escalation continued unchecked.
Reports indicate that Pakistani naval and air surveillance closelymonitored Vikrant’s movements, with the Pakistan Navy maintaining adefensive posture that compelled the carrier to remain confined closer toIndian territorial waters. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later stated thatthe Indian vessel retreated after approaching within 400 nautical miles,sensing Pakistan’s preparedness for vigorous response. Had de-escalationefforts failed and India not sought a ceasefire, defense sources suggestthe Pakistan Air Force stood ready to execute precision strikes on thecarrier to neutralize its offensive potential.
The episode highlights asymmetries in naval power projection between thetwo rivals. While India boasts two operational carriers—INS Vikramadityaand INS Vikrant—with plans for further expansion including a potentialnuclear-powered successor, Pakistan relies on asymmetric strategiesemphasizing submarines, anti-access/area-denial systems, and integrated airdefense. This dynamic was evident in 2025, where Pakistan’s tracking anddeterrence measures prevented any direct maritime engagement, preservingstrategic stability despite intense aerial and land-based exchanges.
Broader implications extend to regional stability in a nuclearizedenvironment. The May conflict, involving over 100 fighter jets in standoffoperations and mutual accusations of violations, demonstrated how quicklylocalized incidents can spiral. International intervention, particularlyfrom the United States, proved crucial in facilitating de-escalation,underscoring the global stake in preventing South Asian flashpoints fromigniting wider confrontation.
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In retrospect, the averted strike on INS Vikrant illustrates the precariousnature of deterrence in contested maritime domains. As both nationscontinue modernizing their forces—India pursuing Rafale-M integrations forits carriers and Pakistan enhancing submarine and missile inventories—therisk of misperception remains high. Sustained diplomatic channels andconfidence-building measures will be essential to manage future crises andavoid catastrophic outcomes in this volatile region.
Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1910509
Tags: Pakistan, India, INS Vikrant, Pakistan Air Force, Operation Sindoor
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