ISLAMABAD: The rapid evolution of unmanned combat aerial vehicles isprompting serious reevaluation of conventional fighter jet acquisitionsamong air forces worldwide, particularly in regions marked by strategicrivalries. Recent advancements in Turkey’s Bayraktar Kizilelma, ajet-powered stealth unmanned combat aerial vehicle, have sparkeddiscussions on whether affordable swarms of AI-flown platforms offersuperior value compared to expensive manned stealth fighters like theAmerican F-35 and Russian Su-57. Industry estimates place the Kizilelma’sunit cost significantly lower than its manned counterparts, raisingquestions about operational efficiency, pilot risk, and saturationcapabilities in modern warfare.
The Bayraktar Kizilelma, developed by Baykar Technologies, represents abreakthrough in unmanned fighter technology with its ability to performair-to-air engagements autonomously. Recent tests demonstrated its capacityto launch beyond-visual-range missiles, including successful simulatedintercepts against aerial targets. With a payload of approximately 1,500kilograms, the platform can carry multiple air-to-air missiles, enabling itto contribute effectively to air superiority missions without endangeringhuman pilots. This development aligns with global trends toward unmannedsystems that reduce casualties while maintaining high combat potential.
Comparatively, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II remains one of themost advanced manned stealth fighters, but its procurement costs remainsubstantial. Recent production lots indicate flyaway costs averaging around$80 million to $100 million per unit for the F-35A variant, with figuresfor export customers like India potentially adjusted based on negotiationsand configurations. While the aircraft offers superior sensor fusion andmultirole capabilities, its high price tag limits the number of units manyair forces can acquire, prompting scrutiny over return on investment incontested environments.
The Russian Sukhoi Su-57 Felon presents another option in thefifth-generation category, with estimated unit costs ranging from $35million to $50 million, positioning it as a more budget-friendly stealthfighter on paper. However, production delays and limited operationalnumbers have raised questions about its maturity and export viability. Likethe F-35, it carries a finite internal weapons load, typically up to fourair-to-air missiles in stealth configuration, while requiring highlytrained pilots to operate in high-threat scenarios.
A key point of contention lies in the cost-to-capability ratio when scaledacross multiple units. For instance, at an estimated $15 million to $40million per Kizilelma—depending on production phase and specifications—anair force could potentially acquire five or more units for the price of asingle F-35. This multiplication effect allows for greater missile carriagecapacity collectively, with five Kizilelmas theoretically fielding 20 ormore air-to-air missiles. Such numerical superiority enables saturationattacks and swarm tactics that overwhelm enemy defenses, a strategydifficult to replicate with limited manned platforms.
Operational readiness further tilts the balance toward unmanned systems inprolonged engagements. United States Air Force reports indicate that theF-35 fleet has struggled with mission-capable rates, often hovering around50 percent to 55 percent in recent fiscal years, attributed to complexmaintenance demands and supply chain issues. This contrasts with thepotentially simpler logistics of unmanned platforms, which avoid pilotfatigue, human error, and the inherent risks of manned flight in contestedairspace. The elimination of pilot risk represents a strategic advantage inscenarios involving anti-access/area-denial threats.
Pakistan Air Force strategists are closely monitoring these developments,given ongoing regional security dynamics. Reports suggest deepening defensecooperation with Turkey, including potential assembly of combat drones inPakistan and interest in integrating advanced systems like the Kizilelmawith existing assets. Such collaboration could facilitate technologytransfer, enabling local production of cost-effective unmanned platformsalongside advanced manned jets like the J-35, thereby enhancing deterrencethrough asymmetric capabilities.
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The shift toward unmanned aerial dominance is not without challenges. Whilethe Kizilelma offers compelling economics and risk reduction, mannedfighters like the F-35 provide unmatched situational awareness throughpilot decision-making and integration with allied networks. Critics arguethat over-reliance on drones could expose vulnerabilities to electronicwarfare and cyber threats. Nevertheless, the demonstrated milestones of theKizilelma, including autonomous formation flights and missile engagements,underscore its potential to redefine air combat paradigms.
In an era of constrained budgets and evolving threats, the choice betweenacquiring limited high-end manned fighters or mass-produced unmannedsystems carries profound implications for force structure and operationaldoctrine. As Turkey advances toward serial production of the Kizilelma, airforces worldwide, including those in South Asia, must weigh these factorscarefully to determine the most effective path for future aerialsuperiority.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BayraktarK%C4%B1z%C4%B1lelma
Tags: Pakistan, Turkey, Bayraktar Kizilelma, F-35, Su-57
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