ISLAMABAD: In a world governed more by power than international law, recentglobal conflicts offer stark lessons for Pakistan’s security. Nations likeIraq, Libya, and Ukraine faced severe consequences after forgoing orlacking nuclear capabilities, while those with atomic arsenals deterredaggression. Analysts argue that nuclear weapons remain the ultimateguarantee of sovereignty, urging Pakistan to strengthen its nuclear andmissile programmes to maintain credible deterrence amid regional threats.
The invasions of Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 followed their abandonmentof weapons of mass destruction programmes under international pressure.Iraq’s Saddam Hussein was overthrown, leading to prolonged instability,while Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi met a violent end after dismantling hisnuclear ambitions. These events highlight how non-nuclear states becomevulnerable to regime change operations by powerful nations, reinforcing theview that nuclear deterrence is essential for survival.
Ukraine’s decision to relinquish inherited Soviet nuclear weapons in 1994under the Budapest Memorandum left it exposed. Russia’s annexation ofCrimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion in 2022 proceeded without nuclearrestraint, as Ukraine relied on security assurances that provedineffective. Experts note that possession of nuclear arms might haveprevented such aggression, underscoring the limitations of internationalguarantees in a power-driven global order.
Iran and Venezuela provide contrasting cases of resilience throughasymmetric capabilities. Iran’s nuclear programme and missile advancementshave deterred direct military action despite sanctions and threats, whileVenezuela’s economic woes stem partly from lacking strong deterrentsagainst external interference. These examples illustrate that conventionalweaknesses can be offset by strategic assets, a lesson relevant for nationsfacing superior adversaries.
Pakistan, with an estimated 170 nuclear warheads as of early 2026 accordingto the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, has maintained full-spectrumdeterrence under its credible minimum deterrence policy. This posture,evolved since 1998, integrates tactical and strategic options to counterIndia’s conventional superiority and growing arsenal, now at around 180warheads per SIPRI estimates.
Missile developments form a critical component of Pakistan’s strategy. TheShaheen-III ballistic missile, with a 2,750-kilometre range, covers all ofIndia, while the Babur cruise missile series offers precision andsea-launched variants for second-strike capability. Recent tests, includingthe Ababeel with MIRV technology, enhance survivability and penetrationagainst defences.
Global nuclear inventories remain dominated by the United States andRussia, holding nearly 90 percent of over 12,000 warheads worldwide.China’s rapid expansion to over 600 warheads signals a new arms race,complicating South Asian stability. Pakistan’s measured growth aims not atparity but at ensuring no adversary can achieve decisive advantage withoutunacceptable costs.
Strategic thinkers emphasise that international law often bends to powerpolitics, as seen in selective enforcement against non-nuclear states. ForPakistan, surrounded by challenges, abandoning or capping nuclearcapabilities could invite risks similar to those faced by Iraq or Libya,making enhancement of both warheads and delivery systems imperative.
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Economic constraints and internal security issues notwithstanding,Pakistan’s nuclear programme enjoys broad national consensus as acornerstone of defence. Investments in plutonium production and advancedmissiles reflect a commitment to dynamic deterrence, adapting to evolvingthreats without entering an unsustainable arms race.
In conclusion, the experiences of Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, and others affirmthat nuclear weapons provide the most reliable shield in an anarchicinternational system. Pakistan must continue refining its arsenal andmissile forces to safeguard sovereignty, ensuring peace through strength ina region marked by persistent tensions.
Source:https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-09/pakistan-nuclear-weapons-2025/
Tags: Pakistan, India, Nuclear Deterrence, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, ShaheenMissile, Babur Missile
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