ISLAMABAD: The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council has announced plansto hold a referendum on independence for southern Yemen, marking asignificant escalation in the country’s protracted civil war. Thisdevelopment follows the STC’s rapid offensive in December 2025, whichsecured control over most territories of the former South Yemen, includingoil-rich provinces bordering Saudi Arabia. The move has intensified clasheswith Saudi-backed forces and strained relations between Riyadh and AbuDhabi.
The STC, led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, declared a transitional period aimedat establishing institutions for a potential independent state. Al-Zubaidicalled for international sponsorship of talks to guarantee southern rights,while warning of immediate secession if attacked. The council now controlseight governorates, encompassing approximately 80 percent of Yemen’s provenoil reserves and strategic ports like Aden and Mukalla.
Saudi Arabia has vehemently opposed the separatist advance, viewing it as adirect threat to its national security due to the shared 425-mile borderand cultural ties with Hadramawt province. Riyadh demanded STC withdrawalfrom seized areas, including Hadramawt and al-Mahra, and conductedairstrikes on STC positions and alleged UAE arms shipments in late December2025.
Clashes erupted in Hadramawt, with Saudi-led coalition forces targeting STCcamps, resulting in reported casualties among separatist fighters. Theinternationally recognised Yemeni government, under the PresidentialLeadership Council backed by Saudi Arabia, launched operations to reclaimterritories, describing the STC actions as unilateral violationsundermining state authority.
The rift exposes diverging Gulf interests: Saudi Arabia prioritises aunified Yemen to counter Iran-backed Houthis in the north, while the UAEsupports southern separatism for strategic influence over maritime routesand ports. Analysts note that the STC’s control makes southern independencemore viable economically and symbolically.
Historical grievances fuel the southern movement, stemming from the 1990unification and a brief 1994 civil war where separatists were defeated. Theformer South Yemen existed independently from 1967 to 1990. Recent STCgains have fractured the anti-Houthi coalition formed in 2015.
The UAE announced withdrawal of its remaining troops following Saudiaccusations of arming separatists. Despite partial agreements allowingSaudi-backed forces deployment in seized areas, the STC refused fullwithdrawal, maintaining operational presence.
This escalation risks renewing widespread conflict, potentially benefitingHouthis who control northern Yemen including Sanaa. It could destabiliseRed Sea shipping and exacerbate regional tensions between Saudi Arabia andthe UAE.
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International observers express concern over Yemen’s fragmentation, withcalls for restraint and dialogue. The United Nations has long advocated apolitical settlement preserving territorial integrity, though southerndemands for self-determination complicate peace efforts.
The situation underscores Yemen’s complex proxy dynamics, where localfactions align with Gulf powers amid a humanitarian crisis affectingmillions. Sustained clashes threaten fragile truces and could redrawregional alliances.
Source:https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-southern-separatists-call-path-independence-amid-fighting-over-key-region-2026-01-02/
Tags: Yemen, Southern Transitional Council, Saudi Arabia, United ArabEmirates.
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