QATAR – For the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCClink>) members, 2017 isending with much insecurity and uncertainty. Tensions between Saudi Arabialink> and Irancontinue to mount as doesfrictionlink>betweenthe United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkeylink>.
Yemen’s humanitarian disasterlink>isgetting worse, as Houthi fighters continue to fire missileslink>intoSaudi Arabia and Riyadh responds with heavy bombardment of Sanaa and otherareas. Sporadic attacks in Bahrain continue targetinglink>thekingdom’s security forces and infrastructure. Qatari-Turkish militarycooperation is deepening as more Turkish troops arrivelink> in Doha.
Amid the GCC states’ sense of vulnerability to regional chaos, an arms raceis under way in the Gulf. On December 18, during its independence daymilitary parade, Qatar showcasedlink>itsChinese-made ballistic missiles. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia announcedits budget for 2018, which will set aside $56bnfor defence spending withexpenditures on education no longer surpassing the military budget. In May,US President Donald Trump announced the signing of arms dealsworth $110bnlink>inRiyadh.
Since Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt severed diplomatic andeconomic ties with Doha on June 5link>,Qatar has spent tens of billions of dollars on USlink>, Britishlink>,and Frenchfighter jets, German tanks, Italian warships, Chinese ballisticmissiles, and Turkish military gear.
In September, the United States approved a $3.8bn arms package to Bahrain,and that same month President Donald Trump announced that a $5bn fighterjet sale to Kuwait had received the State Department’s green light.*Seeking favour with Washington*
Whereas decades ago Washington’s relations with Gulf states were largelydriven by Cold War geopolitics and high US demand for foreign oil, today’scircumstances are different and defence deals, rather than energy, playdominant roles in the US-GCC relations.
For the US, lucrative arms sales to GCC states factor into Trump’s “AmericaFirst” agenda and boost his standing with his supporters at home. For theGCC countries on both sides of the ongoing crisis, these deals are a way towin Washington’s favour.
Trump’s support is a decisive factor in the crisis, as both Qatar and theSaudi/UAE-led bloc continue to wage a “soft war” against each other viamedia outlets, think tanks, and public relations firms.
But, it appears that arms deals with GCC countries have their own economicrationale that operates autonomously from political considerations. Forexample, Trump shook the hand of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the emirof Qatar, at the Riyadh Summit in May 2017 and said that he and the Qatarimonarch would discuss Washington selling “beautiful military equipment” toDoha.
The following month, in the immediate aftermath of the GCC dispute’soutbreak, Trump accusedlink>Qatarof sponsoring “terrorism” in a tweet. A week later his administrationauthorisedlink>over$12bn of US weapons.
Last month at the Dubai International Airshow 2017, Turkey’s state-ownedMikina ve Kimya Endustrisi signed a $20mlink>munitiondeal with the UAE despite recent harsh rhetorical exchanges betweenofficials in Abu Dhabi and Ankara. For all of Russia and Saudi Arabia’sdifferences over Syria and Iran, theirnegotiationslink>ofa sale of S-400defence system are intriguing.
Although the GCC states’ sources of weapons are diversifying, the UnitedStates remains the Gulf states’ top arms dealer. Yet, in Washington, thereis growing concern about US arms sales to GCC members. There have beensuggestions that the Trump administration block arms sales to the regionuntil the GCC crisis is resolved. Another concern is thedeadly militarycampaignlink>inYemen led by Saudi Arabia, which is armed with US weapons.
Similarly, in the United Kingdom, politicians and activists have calledonthe UK government to stop selling arms to Riyadh which could be used in theYemeni war, where air raids by the Saudi-led coalition have killedthousands.*A faulty anti-Iran strategy*
Despite the controversy that surrounds Washington’s arms sales to SaudiArabia and other GCC members, it is likely that such transactions willcontinue. The Trump administration’s plan to remove restrictions on armssales that the Obama administration linked to human rights issues is oneindication of that.
In the Gulf, there will be a continuous demand for such arms deals drivenby perceptions of a growing “Iranian threat”; this sits well with anti-Iranhawks in Washington.
Iran has exploited much of the chaos in post-2003 Iraq, the Syrian civilwar, sectarian unrest in Bahrain, the Yemeni Arab Spring of 2011 and thecollapse of the government in Sanaa in 2014. Arab governments and societiesthat fail to effectively deal with issues of poverty, youth unemployment,ethnic and sectarian marginalisation, human rights abuses, and high levelsof social inequality will remain vulnerable to Iran’s efforts to capitaliseon Arab states’ internal weaknesses.
Put simply, to push back against Iranian influence, Arab governments mustimprove their standing with certain segments of their societies that see nosound alternative but to look to foreign powers such as Iran for support.Arms purchases worth billions of dollars will not solve the domesticproblems of Arab countries.
Ultimately, arms sales serve a political purpose at a time of increasinglyconfrontational rhetoric between the US, GCC states, and Iran. Officials inTehran, however, see through the arms charade and are aware of the showTrump is putting up for his domestic audience.
So Gulf states will need a much more comprehensive approach towards Iranthan spending billions on US arms to curb its growing influence and shieldthemselves from regional instability and violent extremists. – Al Jazeera
Written by: Khaled Al Jaber