WASHINGTON – Lisa Curtis, a Pakistan expert who has argued that the UnitedStates should pressure Pakistan to curtail arms exports into Afghanistan,expel Taliban leaders and seize their assets.
If Pakistan does not act against militants, the Trump administration couldalso consider imposing sanctions, increasing the tempo of drone strikesoutside of tribal areas or withholding backing for Pakistan at globalfinancial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the WorldBank.
Experts have warned that additional U.S. measures might prompt Pakistan totake retaliatory action of its own, possibly including closing road routesand airspace the United States relies on to support its campaign inlandlocked Afghanistan.
In 2011, Pakistan suspended access to those routes after U.S. aircraftkilled more than two dozen Pakistani military personnel along theAfghanistan-Pakistan border. Then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laterapologized for the incident.
It was one in a series of crises during a turbulent year in which Pakistancurtailed intelligence cooperation following the arrest of a CIA contractorand the secret U.S. raid that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
According to Sameer Lalwani, a senior associate at the Stimson Center,Pakistan might also suspend cooperation on safeguarding its nuclear programor sharing intelligence regarding militants in Pakistan or the Pakistanidiaspora in the West.
“They have a lot of arrows in their quiver as well,” Lalwani said. “Theworry is if we start going in this tit-for-tat cycle.”
The nationalist instinct that characterized the response to Trump’s tweetmay grow stronger as Pakistani politicians react to the suspension of aidand position themselves ahead of elections expected this summer.
U.S. officials noted that the aid suspension could be reversed if theyassess Pakistan has taken sufficient action, for example detainingmilitants. “Our hope is that Pakistan will understand our seriousnessness,”the official said. “That they appreciate the valued of this relationship .. . and look at what additional they can do to address our requests.”
Laurel Miller, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who wasa top State Department official until last year, cautioned that the desireto squeeze Pakistan, while understandable, might backfire.
“A punitive and shaming approach is unlikely to elicit greater cooperationfrom the Pakistanis because experience shows that when cornered theirinclination is to dig in rather than to find some new accommodation,” shesaid.