ISLAMABAD – Despite the tall claims made by the PML N federal governmentin Islamabad the latest statistics reveal that the target set by thegovernment on the economic front have not been achieved.

The PML-N government has failed to meet all major macroeconomic and socialtargets it set in the 11th Five-Year Plan, but progress was made across allsectors, reveals an internal assessment of the Planning Commission.The ruling party failed to achieve targets even in areas that were itsforemost priority like electricity generation and construction of roads.The Planning Commission evaluated the implementation of the 11th Five-YearPlan (2013-18) as part of its preparations for the next strategy (2018-2023)

Average gross domestic product growth rate during the first four yearsremained at 4.4% as against the target of 5.4%.

Average growth in the agriculture sector was 2.1% against the target of3.5%. The average industrial output was 5.1% during the first four years asagainst the requirement of 6.3%. The large-scale manufacturing grew at anaverage pace of 4.3% against the target of 6%. Similarly, the servicessector grew at an average pace of 5% against the Five-Year Plan target of5.8%.

The federal government had presented the 11th Five-Year Plan (2013-2018) inthe backdrop of “multiple challenges on the economic, security anddevelopment fronts” the country was facing. The Planning Commission hasadmitted that stagnant exports, widening current account deficit, lowsavings and investments still remain key challenges to sustainable economicdevelopment.

Also, there were gaps in governance across sectors and regional disparitiesremain in development. The Commission also noted in its assessment that theease of doing business indicator could not be improved and social servicedelivery remained poor.

The PML-N government’s poorest performance was in areas that requiredstructural improvements to correct past imbalances. Under the Five-YearPlan, the PML-N government had set a target to enhance Investment-to-GDPratio to 22.8% by 2017-18. However, the ratio was only 15.8% by the end ofthe last fiscal year and for this year the government has set a target of17.2%.

Private investment also fell far below the target of 16.7% despite thebonanza of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

There was a similar situation in yet another critical area of nationalsavings to GDP. Against the Five-Year target of 21.3%, national savingsstood at 13.1% by the end of the last fiscal year, which was even worsethan the 2013 ratio of 13.9%.

Exports had been targeted to increase to $29.5 billion by the fiscal year2017-18 under the plan. At the end of the fourth year, exports grew to only$20.4 billion and for this fiscal year the government has set a$23.1-billion target.

Similarly, imports remained far higher than the target of restricting themto $51.1 billion. The government closed last fiscal year at an import billof $53.5 billion.

The government had targeted to restrict the current account deficit to 1.2%at the end of the fifth year of the Plan, but estimates suggest that thisyear again the current account deficit will be more than 4% of GDP.

Under the Five-Year Plan, fiscal deficit had to be brought down to 3.5% ofGDP – an area where the government also failed. Even conservative estimatesput this year’s estimated budget deficit at 5.5% of GDP, which will requirethe government to borrow more.

Under the Five-Year Plan, the government had targeted to increase overallpower generation capacity to 37,272 megawatts. But the PlanningCommission’s assessment showed that the total power generation would be33,000MW by June 2018. However, this generation will be sufficient to meetthe current energy needs of the country. The share of green energy in totalpower generation increased from 0.5% to 5%. But it was below the target of7%.

The plan sought to increase expenditure under the public sector developmentprogramme (PSDP) from 3.9% of GDP in 2012-13 to 4.6% by 2017-18. Inreality, the PSDP allocation for this fiscal year is equal to only 2.8% ofGDP.

Although the situation was better than in 2013, the government could notperform well in the social sector. Moreover, the responsibility of thesocial sector is now of the provinces after the 18th Amendment in theConstitution. Against the target of reducing maternal mortality rate to 140per 100,000 women, the ratio remained at 170, which was still better thanfive years ago. The infant mortality rate improved from 74 to 66 per 1,000infants but it was far higher than the target of 40.

Similarly, the child mortality rate remained at 81 per 1,000 kids asagainst the target of 52.

Access to clean drinking water was 91% of the total population, up from2013 level but lower than the 93% target. The government also missed thetarget of increasing number of universities to 302, as the totaluniversities remained at 186. About 29 more universities were set up in thepast five years. The net primary enrollment ratio was supposed to be 100%under the Five-Year Plan, which also remained below target. The literacyrate had to be 88% but the last survey results showed it at 58%.