N*ew Delhi:* With ceasefire violations across the India-Pakistan bordercontinuing to escalate, experts are largely pessimistic on whether therewill be any drop in the number of incidents, even as they agree thatcommunication could be strengthened at the brigade and division levelbetween the two armies, The Wire has reported.
Experts were discussing the reasons for the rise in ceasefire violations atthe launch of a new website, Indo-Pak Conflict Monitorlink>, on Saturday. The website will bemonitoring these violations on a daily basis from open source data, studythe emerging patterns and act as a valuable repository. It will also be aresource for analysing the larger India-Pakistan conflict.
As per official data, there were 583 and 315 ceasefire violations reportedby India and Pakistan respectively in 2014link>. This hasshot up to 860 and 1970 by India and Pakistan in 2017link>.
This year link>,India has already reported 192 violations in the first month of 2018, whilePakistan has listed 400 violations till February 2018.
Opening the discussion, former Indian ambassador Vivek Katju, who hadmanned the Pakistan desk during his diplomatic tenure, said ceasefireviolations should not be “looked at in an isolated way” in theIndia-Pakistan conflict.
Former commander of the Srinagar-based 15 corps, Lieutenant General(retired) Syed Ata Hasnain said that it was a wrong assumption that all thefiring by Pakistan across the LoC was to give cover for infiltration.Rather, many of the violations took place in the Poonch and Rajouri sector,where terrorism levels had been zero.
He noted that it was being done to demonstrate that Jammu was also underthe constant spectre of violence, just like the Valley.
“The second explanation is that it allows for the diversion of IndianArmy’s focus and contribute to [allowing] actual infiltration to take placein the Valley sector,” he said.
There was also a spike in violations in recent months due to the weatherconditions, with snow levels being very low this winter. “This has meantthat the window of infiltration opened up in January, rather than inApril-May as usual.”
The reason that Pakistan has been interested in pushing for more and moreinfiltration in the Valley, said the formers senior Indian army officer,was to fill up the leadership vacuum among the terrorist organisations asmost of the top commanders had been eliminated.
Raising the question whether the “LoC duels” have any purpose, Hasnainnoted that it would be foolish to consider this as the staging post for a‘war’ with Pakistan. “But it gives you the scope to maintain moralascendancy,” he argued.
He asserted that there was certainly a valid case for strengtheninglocal-level communications between the militaries stationed at the LoC. “Itwill allow commanding officers and brigade commanders to speak with eachother and resolve the issue… At least allow the setting up of a flagmeeting,” he said.
Senior Indian journalist Nirupama Subramaniam pointed out that among the“global hot spots”, the India-Pakistan border was unique in incurringalmost daily fatalities. She pointed out that 20 people had died on eachside this year alone.
“At what moment does a politician say that enough people have died at theLoC and now we have to sit down and arrest the slide?” she said.
Agreeing that there was not much political incentive to resolve thedeteriorating situation, Indo-Pak Conflict Monitor’s honorary director andproject head, Happymon Jacob, said that the violations were increasinglylinked to political factors. He pointed out that Pakistan was going to thehustings this year and India in 2019, which further creates circumstancesfor continuing the current pattern of violations.
Jacob, who had got access to Pakistani side of the LoC in December 2017,said that his discussions showed that there was a “lot more pressure” onthe Pakistan army from the civilians at the zero line to sit down andresolve the issue.