ISLAMABAD- Pakistan escapes the inevitable – for another three monthsthough. Beset by disagreements and opposition by some leading countries,the 37-nation Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global watchdog onmoney laundering and terror financing, has put Pakistan on notice untilJune 18 to clear decks. This implies that Pakistan would have to complywith demands which not only come from Washington but are shared also byother leading western nations. Ostensibly, they want the country to tailorits financial mechanisms to meet global standards as a wall to terrorfinancing. But it was bad news indeed for all those who had shouted thewhole day on the ‘grim specter’ that they believed Pakistan faced i.e.re-inclusion in the grey list.
But public statements on the outcomes issued at the end of the FATF meetingon Feb 23rd made no mention of Pakistan. The countries on the FATF’swatch-list, announced after the meeting, included Ethiopia, Iraq, Serbia,Sri Lanka, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Vanuatu, North Korea andYemen.
The entire episode and the circumstances around the FATF proceedings meritsdissection from two angels
a) geo-political, and
b) poor, tardy domestic responses to critical issues
No doubt, geopolitics flowing from President Trump’s Afghanistan strategyannounced in August last year is guiding such pressures. It became all themore evident from the steady stream of news via Indian news networks on Feb22/23rd, suggesting Pakistan is being put back on the grey list ofcountries suspected of abetting terrorism. Even the global news agency,Reuters, lapped up overjoyed Indian media and diplomatic sources to reportthat FATF had decided to ‘grey-list’ Pakistan.
In that context, the Paris meeting emerged as another polarizing forum andreinforced deep-seated perceptions about the west; in Pakistan, it was seenas paradoxical that the anti-Pakistan motion was moved and supported by allthose who are publicly aligned against China in the ongoing geo-politicalcontest; USA, UK, Germany, France, Australia and India. Most of them toutthemselves as friends but are currently singing the song fed by India, soran the narrative.
Despite knowing the socio-political context and the systemic deficiencies –result of internal governance and foreign policy failures as well as ofgeopolitically driven expedience of the west (read partnership withPakistan in the Afghanistan and anti-terror war projects) they all gangedup in what can be described as coercive diplomacy.
Now to the national scene. The Feb 21st tweet from Moscow by foreignminister Khawaja Asif laid bare the poor understanding and clumsy handlingof sensitive issues by Pakistani leaders. This act underscored – yet again– that our leader’s propensity to blow away chances through recklesshanding is boundless.
Pakistan is not a member of the FATF and thus was not privy to what wasgoing on inside. Secondly, all its deliberations are confidential but theIndian sources kept feeding media on possibilities as ‘decided matter’, andthus violated the confidentiality clause of the conference. All decisionsare confidential until and unless announced by the authorized forum officeholders.
But, a thoughtless foreign minister in an apparent attempt to upstageIndian officials – nearly destroyed all the behind-the-scenes good work bydiplomats and foreign friends – when he took to twitter to announce thethree month breather. That shocked and annoyed all our friends at theForum, it seems.
That all efforts ended contrary to the hard work that the “anti-group” hadput in should be viewed as yet another opportunity Pakistan’s friends haveafforded it to set things right. Had it not been for their support,Pakistan would have yet again become victim of its own inaction,inefficiency and indecision. External factors only exploit those weaknesses.
The temporary breather indeed amounts to a wake-up call for all those whomatter for actual decisions and actions – the core of decision makers atthe PM House and GHQ – ahead of necessary course correction throughdemonstrable actions. Any country – Israel or India – with US at its backwill always get away with the worst of records. It’s about geo strategicand geo-economic interests.
Clearly, China, with its trillions of dollars worth of economic andcommercial stakes across the globe, would not stick its neck out for toolong. Nor would the Russian and Turkish support be permanent.
CPEC has injected an unusually high sense of entitlement into minds ofPakistan’s civilian and military leaders, not realizing that China hasmassive stakes in maintaining and preserving its multi-trillion dollareconomic interests world over, including hundreds of dollars worth ofinvestments in the United States itself.
Now, regardless of which nations- Turkey, Saudi Arabia or China – managedto buy us another three months – all custodians of power in Pakistan mustunderstand that geo-political considerations often trump bilateralrelations. These also mostly determine the extent that one ally can stretchitself to in issues that have global implications for all. With a fewexceptions, permanence of such support is not guaranteed.
That is why – In the words of dear friend Mosharraf Zaidi – Pakistanis,‘instead of celebrating the support of Turkey, China & Saudi Arabia (whoalmost always stand by Pakistan) we should ask ourselves why we keepputting these great countries in this position. Pakistan should be abeacon, not a burden. It’s a time for shame, not celebration’.
But even the three-month reprieve exposed limitations of such coercivediplomacy in a closely-knit world that does not stand on linear principlesany more. Shades of grey dominate the global landscape with multiplecompeting interests.
Lesson for Pakistani leaders: Don’t drag your feet on things that areunavoidable and inevitable. Don’t wait until the crisis hits us. Do notduck under excuses. Nor is the tendency to dump failures on externalgeo-political factors the right response to existential threats. We needpro-active, credible, smart solutions that do not unnecessarily burden ourfriends, solutions that project us as a forward-looking, honest andresponsible member of the global community. No country will stand by youforever. So don’t stretch your friends’ limits. Nor put their patience tounbearable test.
By: Imtiaz Gul