NEW DELHI – Through the vicissitudes of the past 70 years sinceIndependence, Russia has been a time-tested ally of India. Since the Sovietera, both countries have shared such amicable relations that the U.S. andits allies often registered their suspicions about India being a part ofthe Soviet camp during the Cold War, despite New Delhi’s affirmations thatit was a leader of the Non-Aligned Movement.
Although India has traditionally sought to maintain a delicate balancebetween superpowers and refrained from groupism for its own advantage, inrecent years this position appears to have shifted in favour of finding newallies, based on India’s self-perception as an emerging power in the globalsystem, and its calculations about the changing alignments of power acrossthe world. This change has, to an extent, fuelled India’s interest injoining the Quad.
In parallel to these creeping changes, India’s traditional equations withRussia have shifted, and Russia’s interest in getting closer to Pakistanand China has grown. Indeed Russia-Pakistan relations seem to be on anupward trajectory, with Russia signalling its support for Pakistan’scandidature to the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
Joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan, of the kind held inOctober 2017, are another major concern for India, given the long historyof India-Russia defence ties and the depth of mutual trust that it hasengendered between the two militaries.
The question that the latest developments raise is this: what are the risksof allowing a historically close bilateral relationship with Moscow tobecome a relatively lower priority, and can India ever hope to attain thesame level of trust with any another ally?
The answers to both questions seem to be in the negative, namely that therisks are high and the odds of “replacing” Russian support quite low, atleast for now. In line with this reasoning, the biggest fear in India’sforeign policy circles is that the ongoing shift in equations with Russiacould lead to Russia drifting away from India.
The immediate concern regarding this drift is that a Russia-China-Pakistantrilateral could emerge if India doesn’t play its cards well. It is easy toimagine that both China and Pakistan would be eager to support such analliance as it could arrest India’s strategic momentum in the region andglobally.
Russia’s new Ambassador to India, Nikolay Kudashev, has taken charge atthis critical juncture, a tough time for bilateral ties yet a positiveopportunity to broaden areas of cooperation.
If people-to-people contact between the two countries is promoted more, itcould help ensure deeper linkages and fortify past associations. In sum,the risks of Moscow drifting away from New Delhi’s strategic sphere, intothe arms of regional rivals, are high.
The quickest remedy is to reengage with Russia with the specific aim ofdemonstrating that it is still an important friend of India. – The Hindu
*Martand Jha is a Junior Research Fellow at the School of InternationalStudies, Jawaharlal Nehru University*