ISLAMABAD – The successful test of Babur-III Cruise Missile completed thelast leg of Pakistan’s nuclear triad.Developing nuclear triad capability is essential for stabilizing nucleardeterrence between the belligerent nuclear capable states.
Therefore, addition of Babur-III in Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal stabilizesstrategic equilibrium in South Asia. Babur-III is a submarine-launchedcruise missile (SLCM) having a range of 450 kilometers and the ability todeliver various types of payloads including nuclear warheads. On March 29,2018, Babur-III was tested from a submerged platform off Pakistan’s coastin the Arabian Sea. It uses “underwater controlled propulsion.” It struckundisclosed location on the land. Babur-III was first tested in January2017.
With the development of SLCM, Pakistan Navy is able to conduct the nuclearstrikes with impunity. In the nuclear parleys submarine launched nuclearweapon is viewed the most “survivable” second strike capability in theevent of adversary’s devastating first strike.
The alarming development for the Indian Ocean’s littoral states is thenuclearisation of the Ocean. The United States, United Kingdom, Russia,China, France and India all have nuclear-armed submarines that are alsopowered by nuclear propulsion.
With the successful test of Babur-III SLCM, Pakistan also entered in theelite nuclear-armed submarines club. India deployed its firstnuclear-powered submarine, the Arihant, in August 2016. The Arihant cantravel underwater, virtually undetected, for months. Moreover, India didthe sea trials of its second nuclear submarine, the Arighat, in November2017.
The Indian Government announced that four more submarines would join itsblue water naval fleet by 2025. India had already developed sea-basedmissiles K-4, K-15, Dhanush (modified version of Prithvi-III) and Brahmos(built with the cooperation of Russia).
Presently, it is working another sea-based missile Nirbhay. Previously, ittested the land version of sub-sonic, stealth Nirbhay cruise missile with arange of 1000 Km. India is receiving technological assistance from bothIsrael and the United States.
Pakistan, despite its meagre economic resources has intelligently beeninvesting in its armed forces. It developed technologically sophisticatedballistic and cruise missiles.
The recent tested Babur-III SLCM “incorporates state-of-the-arttechnologies, including underwater controlled propulsion and advancedguidance and navigation features, duly augmented by global navigation,terrain and scene matching systems.” Moreover, Babur-III features terrainhugging and sea skimming flight capabilities to evade hostile radars, airdefences and Ballistic Missile Defense systems.
Presently, Pakistan Navy does not own nuclear-powered submarine. PakistanNavy, however, has five French-built Agosta 90B-class submarines that arepowered by diesel-electric engines. The Pakistan Navy is likely to placenuclear-tipped cruise missiles on these submarines.
With the manufacturing of Babur-III SLCM, Pakistan Navy acquires thecapability of nuclear-armed submarine. Moreover, Pakistan signed a dealwith China to buy eight Chinese Type 039A diesel-electric attack submarinesthat can be equipped with nuclear weapons. These submarines will bedelivered by 2028. The addition of new submarines in the naval fleet andtesting of recent cruise missile confirm that Pakistan is able to arm itssubmarines and possibly some of its surface ships with nuclear weapons.
The comparative study of nuclear-powered and diesel-electric enginesubmarines reveals that the former has many advantages over the latter. Thedisadvantage of the diesel submarines is that they are easily detectabledue to their noise. Secondly, diesel-engine submarine can stay submergedfor two weeks at the most.
Tom Hundley pointed out: “the modern nuclear-powered, nuclear-armedsubmarine is arguably the most fearsome weapon ever conceived.” Therefore,the Pakistani defence planners need to contemplate for adding anuclear-powered submarine in its fleet to attain operational stealthcapability.
Indeed, nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarine ensures reliability andsurvivability of second-strike capability, which is imperative forstabilizing nuclear deterrence.Pakistan’s ability to resist Indian diktat and to disagree with America’sstrategic design flows from one principal source, i.e. indigenous nuclearweapons arsenal. Without this, Pakistan could have been attacked like Iraqor sanctioned like Iran.
The Indian BMD program necessitates Pakistan to invest substantially inadvanced nuclear capable delivery vehicles including MIRVs, stealth cruisemissiles and sea-based assets. The deployment of BMD – even having pooreffectiveness — increases the demand of offensive missiles. Perhaps, thedevelopment and deployment of Babur-III invalidate the effectiveness of theIndian defensive shield.
To conclude, Pakistan completed its nuclear triad. Presently, therefore, itis capable to strike its adversary by land, air and sea. The completion ofthe nuclear triad enhances Pakistan’s retaliatory capability or assuredsecond-strike proficiency. Undeniably, the assured second-strike capabilitystabilises and endures nuclear deterrence stability in a complex cumvolatile strategic environment.
BY: Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal — The writer is Associate Professor, School ofPolitics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.