ISLAMABAD – Pakistan has offered Russia a ‘multidimensional strategicpartnership’ on the eve of 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations.Pakistan’s foreign office said on May 01: “We believe that long termmultidimensional strategic partnership between the two countries will bemutually beneficial for the people of Pakistan and the Russian Federationand would contribute towards regional peace and stability”. So far,President Putin has twice put off his visit to Pakistan, citing lack ofpreparation to make such visits meaningful.
Since then, a lot of mileage has been covered by two sides. Thanks toarrogant American behaviour, soon after aligning with the US after9/11Pakistan realised that the US would abandon it at first availableopportunity. Hence, Pakistan has been making a concerted effort, at leastsince 2005, to diversify its untenable one-way critical dependence on theUS. It planned for a slow and steady transitions rather than a sharp cutoff from the US and proverbially an instant embrace of the ‘Bear’.
Even though numerous recent developments have seen Pakistan-Russiarelations explore new avenues, the US still continues to have abidinginfluence amongst the Pakistani State and Society.
Pakistan’s military leadership and policy level bureaucracy feel that it isnot tenable to cut off from the US. Budgetary support from the US,accounting around 20 percent and access to hi-tech military equipment havebeen the main incentive for remaining engaged with America. Over the recentyears, American civil and military aid has dropped significantly, making iteasier for Pakistan to extend its offer to Russia.
However, one should not expect that the US would easily cede space forRussia, for Pakistan there will be a price for each step towards Russia, inthe form of direct and oblique pressures. Likewise, it is difficult forRussia to untangle from India any time soon, despite India’s fast-movingalignment with the US.
Notwithstanding, relations between Pakistan and Russia have already seen anunprecedented improvement in recent years. Fast-changing regional scenariohave compelled both the countries to align themselves to protect theirmutual interests. Pakistan has now expressed its desire to take therelationship to the next level. The move is seen as significant and a clearshift in Pakistan’s approach.
The shift is essentially necessitated by America’s hard-line approachtowards Pakistan.Over the years, as American influence has been diminishing, Russia hasmoved closer to Pakistan offering energy deals, military partnership,infrastructure development etc. Relationship is fast evolving into a maturepartnership.
Relations between the two countries are now characterised by considerableroll back of mistrust, commonality of interests, and convergence of viewson important regional and global issues. Both countries have similar stakesin durable peace and stability in their common neighbourhood, and harbourshared aspirations for regional development and prosperity.
An up trajectory is being maintained through sustained high-levelinteractions through strong institutional mechanisms and cementingcooperation in such diverse fields as trade and commerce, banking andfinance, agriculture and industry, defence and security, education andtechnology, and energy and infrastructure development etc.The two countries have also collaborated closely at international forumsincluding the UN. Russia has been a strong supporter of Pakistan’smembership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), at a time when evenChina was reluctant to expand the SCO.
Now this platform provides another meaningful podium for close regionalcooperation on matters of common interest.Now, Pakistan views Russia as an important global power, a significantdevelopment partner, and a salient contributor to regional stability.Pakistan, Russia and China appear to have developed consensus on some ofthe regional issues including Afghanistan.
Three countries want a negotiated settlement of the lingering conflict inAfghanistan. As American influence over Pakistan is now in for a perpetualnose dive, Russia is building military, diplomatic and economic ties thatcould upend historic alliances in the region and open up a fast-growing gasmarket for Russian energy companies.
Both Russia and Pakistan are also alarmed by the presence of IS inAfghanistan, which has a potential to expand its operations into adjoiningCentral Asia and South Asia. The two countries have announced plans toestablish a commission on military cooperation to combat the Daesh threatin the region. Both have common ground on most issues at diplomatic levels,relationship is likely to grow substantially.
There is an agreement to continue annual military training exercises thatbegan in 2016 and followed the sale of four Russian attack helicopters toPakistan, as well as the purchase of Russian engines for the JF-17 fighterjets. This development has been watched with unease by India.During the last two decades, the close Russia-India relationship has beenunhinged by huge arms sales by the US to Indian.
“If the Russians start backing the Pakistanis in a big way at the politicallevel, then it creates a problem for us,” said Sushant Sareen, ofDelhi-based Observer Research Foundation. India’s foreign ministry is ofthe view that its own relations with Moscow have stood the test of time,and that the two nations are building up defence and energy relations,including collaboration on nuclear reactors in India.
Pakistan values enhanced ties with Russia in balancing the US influence.However, for now, Moscow-Islamabad rapprochement is, at best, in itsinfancy. So far it is China doing heavy lifting to fill the growing voidleft by the US. Some mega level energy deals and meaningful militarycooperation could stimulate life into the Russia-Pakistan relationship.
Opportunities for cooperation between the two countries are plenty anddiverse. It will be a historic milestone in relations between the twocountries if Russian President Vladimir Putin also visits Islamabad, whichis long overdue.BY: Iqbal Khan —The writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad.