KABUL – A major Taliban assault on Ghazni has triggered five days offighting with Afghan security forces, with reports of scores dead and thestrategic centre left a “ghost city”.

Kabul insists it remains in government hands, but residents have told AFPthe insurgents remain entrenched in the streets, burning buildings andtargeting civilians. The United Nations said unverified reports putcivilian casualties at more than 100.

NATO has dismissed the Taliban assault as an “eye-catching, butinconsequential headline”, yet the demoralised Afghan security forces havestruggled to overpower the insurgents despite backing from US airpower.

Analysts say the attack is a show of strength with the insurgents underpressure to hold peace talks. Here AFP examines what the Taliban’s movemeans for Afghan security.

*Why Ghazni?*

Location is key, experts say.

Ghazni is barely two hours drive from Kabul, and straddles theKabul-Kandahar highway, effectively acting as the main artery to theinsurgents’ strongholds in the south.

Like other cities the Taliban have stormed in the past — such as thewestern city of Farah in May, and Kunduz in the north in 2015 — Ghazni isalso a provincial capital, which are typically bigger and higher-valuetargets. And, analysts said, the Taliban already had key resources in thearea.

“Ghazni has always been a contested province, with a heavy Talibanpresence” in most districts, said Kabul-based military analyst JawedKohistani, adding that for months there had been reports that theinsurgents were threatening the city.

The Taliban, analysts said, are demonstrating strength amid tentative signsthat diplomatic efforts to kick-start peace negotiations are starting tobear fruit.

“A major military and territorial victory on the eve of perhaps importantand direct talks can win the Taliban even more political weight,” Kohistanitold AFP.

In June, Washington indicated a shift in its longstanding policy thatnegotiations must be Afghan-led. Last month Taliban representatives met USofficials for talks in Qatar, militant sources have told AFP.

“Both sides have just shared initial demands and agreed to continueinformal talks,” a senior commander based at an unknown location innorthwest Pakistantold AFP, adding that “no progress has been made”.

The meetings come as the government and the Taliban declared a brief,unprecedented, and widely celebrated ceasefire in June.

Anticipation had been mounting about the possibility of a second governmentceasefire announcement for the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha, which willbe celebrated in Afghanistan on August 21.

Talks about talks have been held many times, but the only directnegotiations with the Taliban for peace took place in Pakistan in 2015.They were derailed by the confirmation that Taliban leader Mullah Omar wasdead.

It seems so, yes — even after local authorities warned of the massinginsurgents for months.

That raises questions about the ability of Afghan security forces threeyears after NATO combat troops pulled out, and the political leadership inKabul, analysts said.

Afghan forces have taken staggering losses since they took over securityfor the country at the end of 2014. On Tuesday the army announced that amilitary base with 100 soldiers on it had fallen to the insurgents afterdays of fighting, with dozens feared killed and captured in the latest blowto morale.

But around Ghazni they may have been too relaxed, underestimating theTaliban’s abilities and resources there and putting misplaced confidence inthe threat of US airstrikes, analysts said.

Afghan-based political analyst Haroun Mir said generals in the field havealso been hobbled by Kabul, citing Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’sreputation for micromanagement as a hindrance.

As parliamentary and district elections approach in October, Ghani, for hispart, has appeared more focused on the campaign trail than confronting theTaliban.

On Sunday, the third day of fighting in Ghazni, Ghani delivered awide-ranging speech to mark International Youth Day. In the nearlyhour-long address he did not refer to the fighting once.

The glaring omission infuriated Afghans, with commentators berating thesidestep.

“He is totally oblivious,” said Mir.

“The successful Taliban onslaught in Ghazni will definitely raise a lot ofquestions about the management of Afghan security and military leadershipand increase calls for reform,” said Kohistani.

Authorities have released little information about Ghazni, fuelling rumoursof high tolls and mistrust in officials.

US-led forces in Afghanistan have been offering regular statements, butdownplayed the fighting, branding it a “failure” by the Taliban to take thecity. – APP/AFP