ISLAMABAD – International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given a new projectionabout Pakistan economy for the fiscal year and the report is adisappointment for the PTI government.
IMF has projected an increase in the inflation rate for Pakistan to 7.5percent (from 3.9 percent in 2018) and revised GDP growth rate downward to4 percent in 2019 (from 5.8 percent in 2018).
IMF in its World Economic Report released in April 2018, had projectedPakistan’s GDP growth at 4.7 percent and inflation rate at 5.2 percent for2019.
The IMF has projected a lower GDP growth rate for 2019 in comparison to 4.8percent forecast by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) for2019.
The World Bank has projected inflation at 8 percent and ADB has forecast6.5 percent for 2019 compared to 7.5 percent by the IMF.
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The IMF report “World Economic Outlook (WEO) Challenges to Steady Growth”,states that growth in Pakistan is expected to strengthen from 5.4 percentin 2017 to 5.8 percent in 2018 (0.2 percentage point higher than in theApril 2018 WEO), underpinned by improved energy supply, investment relatedto the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and strong credit growth.
However, macroeconomic stability gains have been eroding, putting theoutlook at risk. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2019, andslow to about 3.0 percent in the medium term.
The IMF report has also projected a slight rise in the unemployment ratiofor Pakistan – from 6 percent in 2017 to 6.1 percent in 2018 and 6.1percent in 2019. The current account balance is forecast at negative 5.3percent for 2019 compared to negative 4.1 percent for 2017 and negative 5.9percent 2018 respectively.
