ISLAMABAD – An end to the decades-long war in Afghanistan may be in sight,thanks to the ongoing direct talks between the US and the Afghan Taliban.Unlike the past, this time there is a genuine glimmer of hope for peacereturning to Afghanistan.
Both the US and the Taliban have publicly acknowledged ‘progress’ in theirrecent talks in Doha. They have covered considerable ground mainly on twoissues (a) a clear timeline for the US troops’ withdrawal (b) Afghan soilwould never be allowed as base for groups such as al Qaeda and others.
While there are renewed hopes for peace, skeptics are wary of the ongoingpeace talks and fear the Taliban may retake Kabul once the US troops haveleft.
Their fears stemmed from the manner with which the US has shown inclinationto accept the Taliban’s main demand of troops’ withdrawal, although theinsurgents have so far offered little in return. Also the absence of theAfghan government from the peace process has in a way delegitimised theKabul administration.
Rayon Crocker, who served as US ambassador to Afghanistan and Pakistan, isamong those who are not happy the way the Trump administration is handlingthe current situation in Afghanistan.
In a recent interview with *Foreign Policy*, Crocker discusses why hebelieves the Trump administration’s reported framework deal with theTaliban is a betrayal of the “democratically-elected Afghan government”that Washington has spent nearly two decades propping up. “I think theconcerns are pretty clear.
Thus far, the Afghan government has not even been at the table. And thatis, of course, a core Taliban condition, but it delegitimises thegovernment. The Taliban don’t recognise the government. They won’t dealwith it. So whatever guarantees we think we’ve got, the outcome, I’mafraid, is going to be sadly different.
If we withdraw as we’re talking about in an 18-month timeline, you willsimply see the Taliban move in and retake the country,” the former diplomatargued.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani also believes that Pakistan still controlsthe Taliban.
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The growing skepticism has prompted Zalmay Khalilzad, the US specialrepresentative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, to issue a detailed statementon Twitter, allaying fears of the Afghan government and those who thinkthat the ongoing talks may give the Taliban licence to take charge of theAfghan affairs.
“The path to peace doesn’t often run in a straight line. The situation inAfghanistan is complex and like all sensitive talks, not everything isconducted in public,” he said.
According to Khalilzad, skeptics have rushed to judgment based on just thefirst part of a much larger effort, as though we have a completedagreement. “But you can’t eat an elephant in one bite! And a forty-year-oldwar won’t be resolved in one meeting, even if that meeting runs for closeto a week.”
The Taliban have also come up with a statement insisting that they are notseeking “monopoly on power” in a future administration in Afghanistan butare looking for ways to co-exist with Afghan institutions. This is thefirst time an insurgent group has given a public statement showing itskeenness to work with other Afghan players.
Does that mean the Taliban will share power with other Afghan groups? Ifthey do, will other players such as the current government in Kabul sitwith the insurgents? These complex questions show that Khalilzad is rightthat the road to peace in Afghanistan is not straight forward.
But it may be very much straight forward for the Taliban. After survivingthe US military might for more than 17 years, the Taliban are holding talksfrom a position of strength and must have now set sights on the seat ofpower in Kabul.
BY: Kamran Yousaf
