ISLAMABAD – Prime Minister Imran Khan’s announcement on the release andreturn of Indian Air Force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman toIndia will now be used by the BJP as a proof that the muscular policy ofPrime Minister Narendra Modi and NSA Ajit Doval worked, The Print hasreported.
But in reality, many questions will linger over the whole Balakot operationlinkthatwas launched in response to the horrific Pulwama attacklink.
Imran Khan said the release of the pilot was a ‘peace gesture’ and urgedIndialinktostart dialogue. But it is unlikely that any dialogue between India andPakistan can begin before the upcoming Lok Sabha election.
Even if the BJP rightly claims that new redlines vis-à-vis Pakistanisponsorship of terror have been laid, the new government in India post-Maywill have to deal with a shrewd Imran Khan, who has shown the sameversatility in office that he showed on the cricket field.
Imran Khan saw an inflexion point and seized it. After Pulwama, India mayhave established the new pre-emptive strikelinkdoctrineto inflict punishment on terror abettors deep in Pakistan, which Pakistan’sISI will ingest.
But the Indian aggressive policy of Ajit Doval, or Dovalisation of theKashmir policy – using force sans political outreach and carrying out“surgical strikes” to counter Pakistani terror – have run their course inthe current term of the Modi government.
Since the Uri attacklinkin2016, India-Pakistan relations have been in deep freeze. But the car-bombattack on the CRPF convoy at Pulwama, killing 40 servicemen, for whichPakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) instantly took credit, landed theModi government in a difficult situation.
The BJP has been trying to politically exploit the emotive terror issuesince the 2016 attack on a military camp at Uri. They gleefully awaited itsBollywood version called Uri, and went about ratcheting up jingoisticfervour after its release. Even Raksha Mantri Nirmala Sitharaman performedthe fist-clenching act of soldierly “Josh”linkfromthe film.——————————
The Pulwama attacklinkpushedthis narrative and inflamed already roused public emotion, which now soughtinstant retribution. The Modi government faced a dilemma confronted byprime ministers since the 2001 attack on Indian Parliament. How do youpunish a state clandestinely supporting non-state actors indulging interrorism when it possesses nuclear weapons?
On 26 February, Modi government broke that vicious cycle of blackmail byaerial attackslinkontwo targets across the Line of Control (LOC) and a major JeM trainingfacility, within Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, at Balakot.
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Foreign secretary’s briefing emphasisedlinkthefollowing points: India had not targeted Pakistan but made a “non-military,pre-emptive” strike against non-state actors; India had credibleinformation that those under training were planning to attack India; andIndia had no desire to escalate beyond this.
Naturally, public euphoria was widespread. Modi, subtlylink,and his party president Amit Shah, blatantlylink,used it in their election speeches. Next morning, Pakistan’s retaliatoryair intrusion caused little damage on the ground but a MiG-21 chasingPakistani aircraft was shot down and the pilot was capturedlinkbyPakistan. India claimed it shot down a Pakistani F-16, which Pakistandenied.
But with jingoism rampant, the script of invincibility of both militarieswas punctured. And Imran Khan capitalised on that – portraying a picture ofdignified moderation and readiness to settle differences through talks. Hetook everyone by surprise when on the floor of Pakistan’s nationalassembly, he promised the unilateral repatriation of Abhinandan VarthamanFriday.
US President Donald Trump had hintedlinkthatsome good news was imminent, but most analysts read it as excessiveoptimism. But now it means that the US was in the loop and most probablyinstrumental in starting the process of de-escalation between the nuclearweapon-possessing neighbours. Imran Khan’s gesture of goodwill will lowerthe tension and lead to a gradual stepping back from the edge. Hawks inIndian establishment and the BJP will be stranded by Imran Khan’sdiplomatic reverse swing.——————————
A two-step approach is anyway underway: build public pressure via ajoint US-UK-Franceresolutionlinkinthe UN Security Council to list Masood Azhar as an international terrorist,and an outreach to Pakistan to dismantle JeM terror machine. Normally,China would veto the first, despite external affairs minister SushmaSwaraj’s attendance at the Russia-India-China (RIC) ministerial meet. Butthe US choreography may include putting pressure on China to not play thespoiler. The second step has been unsuccessfully tried by the US onprevious occasions. But the Indian military pressure and the loomingfinancial threat of the Financial Action Task Force black-listing Pakistanmay help.
Undoubtedly, the Saudi-Emirati alliance is also guiding Pakistan towardsreducing tension with India. But it puts Indian government in a bindbecause it stymies any further military operation against Pakistan, whichwould seem like an unnecessary military adventure.
After having flexed its military muscles as a show of Modi’s assertiveleadership, India will now have to step back and await diplomatic successin getting Pakistan to abandon its jihad dependence.
*K.C. Singh is a former diplomat and strategic affairs expert.*
