ISLAMABAD – BEING invited as a speaker to an international one-day seminaron the topic “Strategic Coercion and Gray Hybrid War-Options for Pakistan”by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad on 25th April2019 was an eye opener to many facts on the social, political and strategicdimensions and challenges of the hybrid nation-states are faced with.
Besides the inaugural one, the conference comprised two sessions andinvolved speakers of national and international imminence including DrShireen Mazari. Hybrid war(s) reminded me a dialogue from the Leo Tolstoy’sWar and Peace between two princes, one new and another aged. The young onesays that “a time will come when there will be no war”? The old princelaughs and responds, “No war — bring the syringe and take blood out ofhuman veins, and put water instead, then there would be no war.” It provesthat war is an essential and necessary institution with its use as animportant tool since the time primitive.
War played an important role in the rise and fall of Greek city states,empires and nation-states. Its dimensions have been changed and mobilizeddifferently, but its nature and role remains the same. War has beeninstitutionalized with variety of new tactics to achieve its purpose. Ithas to be countered diplomatically, militarily and politically.
Hybrid war is one of the kinds of war whose dimensions might have not beenof a hot war situation, but its implementations and designs are employed totarget adversary. It serves the very purpose of the international politicsthat it is a struggle for gaining power, wealth and influence. In the ageof globalization where hot pursuits of actual war seems less achievable orappear destructive, the hybrid war effects appear more sustainable andafflicting on adversaries. It is an institutionalized version of tacticswith rather non-military tactics and being indirect; at times can bedirect.
The methods employed are of non military means with no annexation ofterritory or forces mobilization. The goals to achieve through the hybridwar can be political, social, strategic, educational, cultural andpsychological; and the achieving targets can be harming unity, integrity,happiness and solidarity.
Pakistan is not alone to be challenged by hybrid warfare tactics. There arerather a large number of countries challenged by its devices. However,Pakistan is one of the leading countries highly indexed by this sort ofwarfare. Not one but many factors are accountable for the scenario. Theyare both internal and external. The situations are two like, either reallyor pretending.
The major internal situation accountable for the situation is thedistrustful situation the countries has experienced over the years. AsHarold Laski describes in his masterpiece. “The Grammar of Politics”, trustbuilding grows out of the evaluation of a system based on the peoples’expectations, experiences and beliefs.
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Not one but many factors account for the process of trust building, butimportant ones are legitimacy of the rulers; the relationship of thegoverned and governors; and the functionary role of its major governingagencies which in modern polity can be grouped into executive, judiciaryand legislature etc. In Pakistan, people have lost trust in publicinstitutions. In a country or situation where trust building is low, thechances of hybrid chances are higher. Any slight rumor or chaos can be wellcirculated with fear.
For example, a news item flashed that a shop was raided with horse meatsold as beef unnecessarily refrains people from buying beef for months. Thenews item may be not based on fact, but the distrustful situation developedin the country can have its implications all over. The lack of trustbuilding has further paved way for alienation situation where people inlarge fall in that category. The alienated citizenry have higher sense offrustration and lack of trust.
The rise in alienation is largely due to internet and social mediadevelopment where news is circulated within no time. But the lack of goodadministrative, judicial and social institutions deteriorates the situationfurther. The lack of social justice built on necessary state pillars makesthe situation vulnerable for hybrid wars.
The rise of terrorism in Pakistan over the years accounts for hybrid likesituations the country is faced with. Terrorist activities based onsectarian and religious fervor have grown all over Pakistan. The wave ofterrorism has hit all corners and communities of the country. In large theyinclude innocent citizens and powerless elements of society who believethat government has failed in large to defend them. For example, inBalochistan, which has been suffering highly from hybrid warfare, theHazara community largely based in Quetta and its superb have been thetarget of terrorism due to economic and sectarian reasons without anyconcrete steps taken by the government.
One of the factors accountable for hybrid situation in Pakistan is Indianfactor as a hostile neighbour with which relations have become more intensethan before, particularly during the previous five years rule of BJP underModi. Countries with hostile neighbours have traditionally been suffered bypropaganda, cold war and terrorist threats — all exceeding the nature ofwarfare.BY: Mansoor Ahmed Kundi — The writer is a former VC and currently Professorin Deptt of Politics & IR in IIUI.
