*NEW DELHI – AS Dulat, the former chief of the Research and Analysis Winghas made stunning claims about the likely fallout in Jammu and Kashmir andthe political context of the BJP’s decision. *
*Dulat, who also served as a special director of the Intelligence Bureau,said that while he did not anticipate any upsurge in resistance on theground, he did fear a rise in terror activity.*
*AS Dulat said* It’s a sad and unfortunate thing because I do not think itwas necessary. I was told that even the home minister Amit Shah said inparliament that this erosion [of Article 370] was already taking place; weare only completing the process.
He is right there, that erosion was taking place. I have said it many timesthat 370 is nothing, it’s only a fig leaf. So, why do you want to removethat fig leaf? Why would you want to rub the Kashmiri nose further into theground? Let it be, 370 is nothing.
Let me go back to 1947 and Kashmir’s accession to India. From the verybeginning, the government of India’s policy and effort was to try andgradually mainstream Kashmir into the rest of the country.
And I think the government has succeeded to a very large extent. If youthink back to 1947 and 1953, and even 1975, when Sheikh [Abdullah, theformer president of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference] had realisedthat you cannot fight Delhi and it’s best to make peace.
At the most, what the Kashmiris asked for was autonomy. The dialogue, theconversation was always about autonomy and the Kashmiri knew that he is notgoing to get that autonomy. What I am trying to say is that I think theKashmiris had reconciled to the status quo. If that be so, that obviouslyimplies that Delhi, at some stage, had not reconciled to the status quo andthat is why we have now gone beyond the status quo.
Maybe this is the right thinking, time will tell. Like [the senior Congressleader] P Chidambaram said rightly, “The architects of what has happenedtoday might one day regret what they have done, and I hope I am wrong.” Ifeel exactly the same way.
But my apprehension really is—as someone who has dealt [with] and seenKashmir and the subject of security and terror—that it might escalate.Terror might escalate. I do not think it will happen immediately, but inthe time to come. I think the intelligence agencies have a job on theirhands now, to keep a track of what might happen.
There is another point I want to make, that one of the tragedies of Kashmirin recent years has been a total lack of leadership.
The leadership is either being selfish, or overestimated itself, orunderestimated itself, but there is no leadership. In my book, there isonly one leader in Kashmir, Dr Farooq Abdullah [the National Conference’schairperson and a former chief minister of the state].
He understands Kashmir; he understands Delhi; he understands Pakistan; andhe understands international relations. Mufti [Mohammad Sayeed, the formerchief of the Peoples Democratic Party of Jammu and Kashmir and two-timechief minister] sahib, unfortunately, did not understand all that. He hadbeen a union home minister, but he never understood Delhi.