New Delhi – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strongarm move to tightencontrol on Muslim-majority Kashmir is a gamble that could trigger conflictwith Pakistan and re-ignite an insurgency that has already cost tens ofthousands of lives, experts warn.
Revoking Kashmir’s special status, stripping away constitutionallyguaranteed privileges to land and jobs, is widely seen as Modi’s mostspectacular effort yet to push his Hindu nationalist agenda after alandslide election victory in May, AFP reports.
His government insists it will bring peace and prosperity, but the massivemilitary reinforcement that accompanied the measure is a clearacknowledgement of the underlying risks.
While many Hindus celebrated, the Kashmir valley — focus of a 30-year-oldMuslim insurgency against Indian rule — was smothered under one of theheaviest security clampdowns it has seen.
Tens of thousands of extra Indian troops enforced a blanket curfew on topof a total communications blackout, but reports still emerged of sporadicprotests and gunfire in the streets.
A.S. Dulat, a former chief of the Indian intelligence service andgovernment advisor on Kashmir, said keeping a lid on violence was criticalif Modi was to claim victory for his dramatic power play.
“But, my own apprehension is there will be repercussions and there will bean escalation of violence,” he told AFP.
– Anger and alienation –
D.S. Hooda, a retired lieutenant general who once commanded Indian forcesin Kashmir, also voiced fears of “anger, alienation and law and orderdisturbances”.
India already had 500,000 troops in Kashmir before the reinforcementsarrived.
Militant activity, after some years of decline, reared up after the killingof charismatic rebel leader Burhan Wani in 2016, and Kashmiris say thecurrent lockdown will only fuel a sense of growing resentment.
“People are not going to take this lying down,” said Iltija Javed, daughterof former Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti who was detained at theweekend.
“It’s not physically possible to keep people under captivity for the restof their lives,” Javed told AFP from Srinagar.
Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party believes it is righting a historicalwrong which saw outsiders — mainly Hindus — excluded from economic powerwhen Kashmir was granted privileged status after independence.
But many remain uncomfortable with the manner in which that status wasstripped away, using a presidential decree with no debate in Kashmir andonly token discussion in the New Delhi parliament.
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“The manner of its execution — while extraordinarily efficient — hasbrought deceit, disinformation and communal politics, once again, to thecentre stage,” South Asia counter terrorism expert Ajai Sahni told AFP.
– How will Pakistan react? –
Another key concern is Pakistan, whose Prime Minister Imran Khan vowedTuesday to challenge India’s “illegal” action at the UN Security Council.
Late Wednesday Islamabad took a step further, announcing it was expellingthe Indian High Commissioner and suspending bilateral trade in adowngrading of diplomatic ties over the decision.
The nuclear-armed rivals have already fought two wars over Kashmir, whichis divided between the two countries and claimed by both.
Earlier this year they came close to war yet again, after a militant attackin Indian-held Kashmir was claimed by a group based in Pakistan, ignitingtit-for-tat air strikes.
Ankit Panda, a New York-based geopolitical analyst, stressed that Kashmirwas a “core” interest of the Pakistan military which dominates thecountry’s foreign and security policy.
“So we may see Pakistan step up its attempts to raise tensions … orPakistan increasing its use of non-state groups to begin attacking Indianparamilitary personnel in Kashmir,” Panda said,
“If the Pakistani military decides it’s going to react in that way…things start to get very dangerous.”
Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, a key architect of Modi’s action,compounded international concerns when he told parliament that unitingKashmir — including a small section under Chinese control — was a causeworth dying for.
Sadanand Dhume, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute inWashington, said it was still too early to say if Modi’s move would be seen”as a wise decision or an historic blunder.”
“But two things are clear: India has ignored Kashmiri sentiment, and takena risky decision with almost unfathomable implications,” Dhume said.-APP/AFP
