ISLAMABAD – Hidden by the Ukraine-impeachment melee, tensions between Indiaand Pakistan are ratcheting up dramatically.
A now-critical disagreement over Kashmir, backed by more than 100 nuclearweapons on each side, is coming to a critical point. On Friday, millions ofPakistanis are expected to take to the streets in protest against India’srecent assertion of federal control over Jammu and Kashmir. Taking effecton Oct. 31, that control will end the region’s special administrativestatus under Indian law. This has infuriated the region’s predominantlyMuslim population.
It has also infuriated Pakistan, which sees itself as the protector ofJammu and Kashmir residents. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan hasauthorizedlinkprotestson Friday, supported by emotive Twitter hashtags such as #HumansofKashmirand #ChildrenunderSeige. But Khan is also warning that any bloodshed mightlead to war. His specific concern takes root in the possibility of violencebreaking out between Kashmir residents and Indian security forces.
But other Pakistani politicians are taking a much harsher stance. AsReuters noteslink,the risk is that some protesters may storm the line of control separatingIndian and Pakistani administrative areas. One senior figure pledged, “Weare preparing people, emotionally, and collectively we will be ready tofight on 27th September.”
While Khan and the Pakistani Army oppose storming actions, their resistancewill only count for so much. The army, after all, is unlikely to fire onunarmed protesters. Moreover, Pakistani Islamist parties sense a politicalopportunity to mobilize and grow their own bases by appropriating thenationalist emotion that flows with general Pakistani sentiment towardJammu and Kashmir. While these parties form a relatively small componentlinkofthe Pakistani political scene, they are skilled at manipulating publicanger and defined by hostility toward India. Their sentiment matches to thehypersensitivity with which Kashmir is viewed in Salafi-Jihadist ideology,recruitment, and operational efforts.
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Meanwhile, India seems in no mood to give ground. Indian Prime MinisterNarendra Modi was recently reelected with a hawkish nationalist majority,and he’ll be reluctantlinktoshow weakness against any destabilizing Pakistani actions in Kashmir.Whether in the form of protests or terrorist attackslink,those actions are now highly likely.
The underlying concern, then, is that one incident or violence leads to anescalatory spiral that neither New Delhi nor Islamabad can effectivelycorral. International mediation here is crucial. Possessing good relationswith both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modilink and Imran Khanlink,President Trump should take the lead here, Washington Examiner has reported.
