By: Prof. Abdul Shakoor Shah
As the great powers deepen their presence in South Asia, all eyes are onAfghanistan. The two major powers are Russia and China. Both have their owninterests in Afghanistan, actually the US presence in the region and theUS-India ties and security anticipations have compelled the Asian giants tostep into Afghan doldrums.
Chinese interests in Afghanistan comprise of five chief categories: theCPEC, their unease with Afghanistan’s proximity to the Xinjiang province,the US presence in the region, the US-Indian ties disturbing the regionalbalance of power and security of its interests in the Middle East. Anunhinged Afghanistan will unenthusiastically impinge on CPEC. Therefore,the Chinese have planned to include Afghanistan in the CPEC in future toprotect their interests. It will not only alleviate Chinese concerns overCPEC due to unstable Afghanistan but it will also paved China’s way toIran, Middle East and less likely to India in future.
China is leaping into Afghanistan in its larger geopolitical and economiccontext. Chinese involvement in Afghanistan aims to prevent possiblespill-over into CPEC and its own borders. China is taking interests inAfghanistan very cautiously keeping in mind if the situation takes acomplete turnaround, there will be a window to jump out.
China’s role as a facilitator between Pak-Afghan talks is also very tactfulto utilize Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan in its favor for tacklingpossible challenges to its soil and security from Afghanistan. For China,Afghanistan is a hallway between Pakistan and Iran. China was lookingforward to Pakistan’s eye role in the US-Taliban negotiation, which hasproved successful. Pak-China as being all weather friends, will provide asure chance for China to extend its new model of international development.
Along with geopolitical and strategic interests, there is major Chineseeconomic interest in Afghanistan. Chinese companies have been vigilantlyinspecting the natural assets in Afghanistan which are projected at $1trillion. In 2007, a deal worth $3.4 billion (30-year lease) was signedbetween Afghanistan and two Chinese state owned companies—ChinaMetallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(JLC)—to mine copper in Aynak Copper mine in the eastern region ofAfghanistan, the world’s second-largest copper deposit. The state ofAfghanistan has a lot to offer China in terms of natural resources,connections and international attention, the road to certain business hubsof Asia, its strategic significance and boost to Chain’s BRT.
Afghan affair will strengthen Chain’s ambition of regional influence.China’s extended interest in Afghanistan was observed in 2014-15 when aspecial envoy was appointed for the first time by China for peace processand reconciliations. China’s Afghan involvement is also due to risingUyghur secessionism in the western Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Regionbordering Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Afghanistan, and is anxiousabout the explosion of rising extremism from the Afghan-Pakistan borderinto the fidgety Xinjiang. An unstable Afghanistan will result in securityimplications for BRT and Xinjiang because the reports reveal links ofXinjiang problem and Talibans.
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China prefers it to be a part of stable Afghanistan to avoid likely unevensituations. That is why China offered military assistance of more than $70million to Kabul between 2016-18. China has also aided Afghanistan inconstructing the Wakhan Corridor. Unlike Russian, China has a smoothchance in Afghanistan with no invasion history. In the near future, Beijingis likely to be the second most important external factor after Pakistanthrough its infrastructure, military assistance and expansion of soft powerin Afghanistan. Chinese factor has shrunk India-Kabul road. China’sexpanding influence in the region has compelled India to stop hesitatingmilitary alliances with the US, Japan and Australia. The US-Indian ties areto stop Chinese influence. Indian foot-prints in Afghanistan are due to theUS’ presence in Afghanistan. China will push India out of Afghanistan byincluding it in CPEC.
Russian has also positioned itself as a mediator for Afghanistan stabilityby inviting the Taliban to Moscow which frustrated the US. Moscow-Talibanmeeting aimed to map out the US withdrawal from the region. Russian isconcerned about Central Asian stability, it is also aware of the fact thatthe US decamping Afghanistan will create a security vacuum in the region.Russian is focusing to protect regional trade and exercise a greaterinfluence in Central Asia. Russian wants to strengthen collaboration withCentral Asian states. Russian is not concerned with its strategic interestsin regard to Afghan affairs rather to the presence of external forces.
Russian interests in Afghanistan are of contradictory nature, on one handit wants departure of foreign military while on the other hand the USpresence in Afghanistan provides it a chance to turn heed from securityissues and focus on other targets. Russian has been tactically assistingthe Taliban to make ground difficult for the US and NATO allies relativelyat little cost. The second purpose is to Washington in other conflicts byengaging in Afghan doldrums.
Moscow is also aiming at taking revenge for its defeat in Afghanistan whichwas triggered by the US. Russian involvement in Afghanistan will surelydamage the US and NATO’s reputation and will stop their willingness toengage in any future out-of-area operation. These both will be tremendousvictories of the USSR. Russia is playing a dramatic and tactful role inAfghanistan by supporting Commanders as it has realized that a stableAfghan is a better choice for it than the two Evils namely the US andTaliban.
Russians have supported northern commanders to stop Taliban’s influenceinto Central Asia rather than attacking Afghan and international forces.Russian assistance to commanders does not mean that the USSR aspires to seethe Taliban entirely victorious rather it aims to look for a state like theUS desires. Russian wants a stable Afghanistan with inclusive governmentafter the US exist.
