ISLAMABAD – Indian Security Agencies have met with a new dilemma in theoccupied Kashmir as the number of youth joining the militants is double thenumber of Martyred youth in the valley.

Almost half the recruitments into militant ranks in the Valley after thekilling of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani came from within 10 kmof the residences of killed militants or encounter sites and theserecruitments took place within 40 days of the encounters.

These are among the findings of security agencies in J&K, part of a reporton militancy and recruitment in the region that set the stage for theRamzan ceasefire.

The report analysed 43 encounters since November 5, 2016, until April 26this year, in which 77 militants were killed. After the death of BurhanWani on July 8, 2016, 121 militants have been killed and 216 local youthsjoined militancy. Of these, 104 were directly linked to the killing ofmilitants in their area or a killed militant belonged to their area.ADVERTISEMENT

Consider the key findings of the report, which analysed the circumstancesaround these 104 recruits:

* Each encounter sets off a surge in recruitments and new inductions intomilitancy far exceeds militants killed in operations rendering evensuccessful counter-insurgency a zero-sum game.

* Militant killings anywhere trigger emotions across the Valley but in mostcases, there is a strong correlation between the area of recruitment andnumber of militants killed from that area.

* No wonder then that 67 of the 104 recruitments took place within 15 kmfrom a killed militant’s residence, 48 of these were within a radius of 10km.

* 41 per cent of all new recruits were within 10 km of the encounter site,27 per cent within 11 and 20 km and 18 per cent between 10 and 15 km.ADVERTISEMENT

* Recruitments between 2010 and 2018 into different militant organisationscame from 354 villages, including nine from one village – Brath KalanSopore and seven militants each from three villages – Heff Zainpora,Redwani Bala and Arwani Bijbehara.

* 94 local militants were active in the Valley in early 2016, which rose to113 in 2017 and at the beginning of 2018, there were 149 active militants.

* In 2016, 33 militants were killed while 88 youths were recruited and in2017 while 80 militants were killed, 131 were recruited into militancy.

* Of the 461 local youth who joined militancy since 2010, 331 came fromSouth Kashmir.

Inspector General of J&K Police, Kashmir zone S P Pani told The IndianExpress that the increase in local recruitment into militancy has been the“biggest challenge”.

“We have been trying to dissuade local recruitment. Until now, 11youngsters (who had joined militant ranks) have come back. Five (newrecruits) were caught alive during encounters,’’ he said. “It is imperativethat local recruitment is contained.”

The report on the trends in local militancy since 2016 suggests that thereare a “host of circumstances” that “draw a correlation between themilitants killed in encounters and the corresponding new inductions”.

According to the report, the killing of local militants in encounters “ispart of a circle” that “acts as a catalyst to push further recruitment”.

The killing of civilians, who gather at encounter sites to protest, adds tothe anger. “A single encounter in an area today draws severe law and ordersituations ending up many a time in the attack on the encounter site. (and)the deaths of protesters,” states the report.

“These protesters are usually residents of adjoining areas and alsosometimes from areas not necessarily close to the encounter site. Thedeaths of these protesters further trigger protests supplemented by largefuneral processions. Such a charged environment is a perfect blend ofemotions and anger that is required to attract militant recruitment.”

Security agencies also indicated that funerals of killed militantswitnessed pledges to join militancy.

“It has been observed that many a time, friends of killed militantsmanifest a tendency of pledging to join militancy on seeing the dead bodiesand funerals of their friends. During the Bamnoo encounter, which tookplace in Rajpora, Pulwama where Jahangir Khanday of Keller was killed, hisfriend joined militant ranks on spot at the encounter site,” says thereport.

“Large funerals of militants have also witnessed the presence of activemilitants who give gun salutes to their killed associates. The presence ofmilitants in these funerals not only eulogises the deaths of militants butat the same time brings active militants into open interaction withcivilians. Such an interaction is one of the first and important steps infacilitating recruitment.”

The data shows an uptick in recruitments after encounters. “While in someinstances the reaction to the encounter in the form of recruitment isbrisk, there are instances where it might take a few months to see theafter-effects. Such a tendency may be attributed to the paucity of weaponsand inability to get into contact with active cadres,” says the report.

The report indicates that while there have been successful operations,militancy “in no way seems to have taken a back seat”.

“From month to month the number of militant killings has been followed upby further recruitment outnumbering the killings and thereby raising thegraph of the total number of militants each year. Even in the face ofsuccessful counterinsurgency operations, 94 local militants were active inthe valley at the beginning of 2016 which rose to 113 at the beginning of2017 and finally at the beginning of 2018, the number stood at 149,” statesthe report.

In 2018, 26 militants were killed while 46 fresh recruits were reported.Four were killed in January against 15 recruitments. None killed inFebruary but five joined militant ranks and seven were killed in Marchagainst ten new recruits. In April, 18 militants were killed and 16 localyouth joined militancy.

“What is noteworthy is that while from January (2016) up to July (2016) anaverage 4 militants were killed monthly and six would get recruited, butpost Burhan Wani’s killing in July (2016), 35 militants got inducted intothe militant ranks in the following three months of August, September andOctober,” says the report.

“In 2016, whereas an average of fewer than 3 militants was killed eachmonth in the year, more than 7 at an average got recruited. It is evidentthat the killing of HM Commander Burhan Wani created a surge in militantrecruitment across the valley in general and South Kashmir in particular.”

After Wani’s killing, security agencies have found that 35 youth becamemilitants influenced by his killing in next three months. Except for threeyouth (two from Bandipore and one from Handwara), all of them belonged toSouth Kashmir.

The analysis of the data related to local militancy in Kashmir between 2010and 2018 has also shown the militant presence concentrated in 29 clusters.The Pulwama cluster (comprised of 29 villages) and Tral Awantipora cluster(28 villages) has had the largest militant recruitment with 37 militantseach since 2010.