Saudi Arabia remains steadfast in its determination to secure a military agreement that would obligate the United States to defend the kingdom. This commitment persists, even if Israel does not offer significant concessions to the Palestinians in their pursuit of statehood, according to information from three sources well-versed in the ongoing discussions.
The nature of this pact may not reach the level of ironclad, NATO-style defense guarantees initially sought by the kingdom when discussions first arose between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. President Joe Biden during the President's visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022.
One U.S. source suggests that the agreement could resemble treaties the United States has with Asian nations. Alternatively, if such a treaty were unlikely to receive approval from the U.S. Congress, it might adopt a model similar to the U.S. agreement with Bahrain, where the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is stationed. Notably, this type of agreement would not require congressional backing.
Furthermore, Washington could enhance the agreement by designating Saudi Arabia as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status already bestowed upon Israel. Nevertheless, all sources concur that Saudi Arabia insists on nothing less than firm assurances of U.S. protection in the event of an attack, reminiscent of the missile strikes on its oil facilities in September 14, 2019, which reverberated through global markets and were attributed to Iran by Riyadh and Washington, though Tehran denied involvement.
The prospect of granting the world's largest oil exporter U.S. protection in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel holds the potential to reshape the Middle East significantly. This would bring together two historical adversaries and further solidify Riyadh's ties to Washington, particularly in response to China's increasing influence in the region. Such an achievement would also stand as a diplomatic victory for President Biden in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. election.
While the Palestinians may see some easing of Israeli restrictions, these concessions are unlikely to fulfill their aspirations for statehood. As has been the case with other Arab-Israeli agreements throughout history, the core Palestinian demand for statehood may find itself relegated to a secondary position, as indicated by the three sources familiar with the ongoing negotiations.