Saudi Arabia remains steadfast in its determination to secure a militaryagreement that would obligate the United States to defend the kingdom. Thiscommitment persists, even if Israel does not offer significant concessionsto the Palestinians in their pursuit of statehood, according to informationfrom three sources well-versed in the ongoing discussions.
The nature of this pact may not reach the level of ironclad, NATO-styledefense guarantees initially sought by the kingdom when discussions firstarose between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. President Joe Bidenduring the President’s visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022.
One U.S. source suggests that the agreement could resemble treaties theUnited States has with Asian nations. Alternatively, if such a treaty wereunlikely to receive approval from the U.S. Congress, it might adopt a modelsimilar to the U.S. agreement with Bahrain, where the U.S. Navy’s FifthFleet is stationed. Notably, this type of agreement would not requirecongressional backing.
Furthermore, Washington could enhance the agreement by designating SaudiArabia as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status already bestowed upon Israel.Nevertheless, all sources concur that Saudi Arabia insists on nothing lessthan firm assurances of U.S. protection in the event of an attack,reminiscent of the missile strikes on its oil facilities in September 14,2019, which reverberated through global markets and were attributed to Iranby Riyadh and Washington, though Tehran denied involvement.
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The prospect of granting the world’s largest oil exporter U.S. protectionin exchange for normalizing relations with Israel holds the potential toreshape the Middle East significantly. This would bring together twohistorical adversaries and further solidify Riyadh’s ties to Washington,particularly in response to China’s increasing influence in the region.Such an achievement would also stand as a diplomatic victory for PresidentBiden in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. election.
While the Palestinians may see some easing of Israeli restrictions, theseconcessions are unlikely to fulfill their aspirations for statehood. As hasbeen the case with other Arab-Israeli agreements throughout history, thecore Palestinian demand for statehood may find itself relegated to asecondary position, as indicated by the three sources familiar with theongoing negotiations.
