ISLAMABAD- In 1998, when India tested six bombs in a span of three days.Nearly three weeks later, Pakistan conducted a similar rapid-fire testingschedule, setting off five bombs in a single day and a sixth bomb threedays later. The first device, estimated at twenty-five to thirty kilotons,may have been a boosted uranium device. The second was estimated at twelvekilotons, and the next three as sub-kiloton devices.Report Advertisementlink
The sixth and final device appears to have also been a twelve-kiloton bombthat was detonated at a different testing range; a U.S. Air Force “ConstantPhoenix” nuclear-detection aircraft reportedly detected plutoniumafterward. Since Pakistan had been working on a uranium bomb and NorthKorea—which shared or purchased research with Pakistan through the A. Q.Khan network—had been working on a uranium bomb, some outside observersconcluded the sixth test was actually a North Korean testlink,detonated elsewhere to conceal North Korea’s involvement although. There isno consensus on this conclusion.
Experts believe Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile is steadily growing. In 1998,the stockpile was estimated at five to twenty-five devices, depending onhow much enriched uranium each bomb required. Today Pakistan is estimatedto have an arsenal of 110 to 130 nuclear bombs. In 2015 the CarnegieEndowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center estimatedPakistan’s bomb-making capability at twenty devices annuallylink, which ontop of the existing stockpile meant Pakistan could quickly become thethird-largest nuclear power in the world. Other observerslink,however, believe Pakistan can only develop another forty to fifty warheadsin the near future.
Pakistani nuclear weapons are under control of the military’s StrategicPlans Division, and are primarily stored in Punjab Province, far from thenorthwest frontier and the Taliban. Ten thousand Pakistani troops andintelligence personnel from the SPD guard the weapons. Pakistan claims thatthe weapons are only armed by the appropriate code at the last moment,preventing a “rogue nuke” scenario.
Pakistani nuclear doctrine appears to be to deter what it considers aneconomically, politically and militarily stronger India. The nuclearstandoff is exacerbated by the traditional animosity between the twocountries, the several wars the two countries have fought, and events suchas the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai, which were directed by Pakistan.Unlike neighboring India and China, Pakistan does not have a “no first use”doctrine, and reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, particularlylow-yield tactical nuclear weapons, to offset India’s advantage inconventional forces.
Pakistan currently has a nuclear “triad” of nuclear delivery systems basedon land, in the air and at sea. Islamabad is believed to have modifiedAmerican-built F-16A fighters and possibly French-made Mirage fighters todeliver nuclear bombs by 1995. Since the fighters would have to penetrateIndia’s air defense network to deliver their payloads against cities andother targets, Pakistani aircraft would likely be deliver tactical nuclearweapons against battlefield targets.
Land-based delivery systems are in the form of missiles, with many designsbased on or influenced by Chinese and North Korean designs. The Hatf seriesof mobile missiles includes the solid-fueled Hatf-IIIlink (180 miles), solid-fueledHatf-IV link (466 miles) andliquid-fueled Hatf V link, (766miles). The CSIS Missile Threat Initiative believes that as of 2014, Hatf VIlink (1242 miles) is likely inservice. Pakistan is also developing a Shaheen IIIlink intermediate-rangemissile capable of striking targets out to 1708 miles, in order to strikethe Nicobar and Andaman Islands.Report Advertisementlink
The sea component of Pakistan’s nuclear force consists of the Babur classof cruise missiles. The latest version, Babur-2, looks like most moderncruise missiles, with a bullet-like shape, a cluster of four tiny tailwings and two stubby main wings, all powered by a turbofan or turbojetengine. The cruise missile has a range of 434 miles. Instead of GPSguidance, which could be disabled regionally by the U.S. government,Babur-2 uses older Terrain Contour Matching (TERCOM) and Digital SceneMatching and Area Co-relation (DSMAC) navigation technology. Babur-2 isdeployed on both land and at sea on ships, where they would be moredifficult to neutralize. A submarine-launched version, Babur-3link,was tested in January and would be the most survivable of all Pakistaninuclear delivery systems.
Pakistan is clearly developing a robust nuclear capability that can notonly deter but fight a nuclear war. It is also dealing with internalsecurity issues that could threaten the integrity of its nuclear arsenal.Pakistan and India are clearly in the midst of a nuclear arms race thatcould, in relative terms, lead to absurdly high nuclear stockpilesreminiscent of the Cold War. It is clear that an arms-control agreement forthe subcontinent is desperately needed. The National Interest
BY : *Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national-security writer based in SanFrancisco who has appeared in the *Diplomat*, *Foreign Policy*, *War isBoring* and the *Daily Beast*. In 2009, he cofounded the defense andsecurity blog *Japan Security Watch*. You c**an follow him on Twitter: **@KyleMizokami*link*.*