Tehran, April 27, IRNA – Many Arab analysts believe that US presidentDonald Trump’s plan will stop the flow of Iranian oil exports, but, Tehranis working hard to drive the plan to total failure with many options it hasto thwart such a scheme.
US anti-Iranian measures have increased, and the White House on Mondayissued a statement announcing that US President Donald Tramp has decided tostop issuance for waivers for Iranian oil buyers.According to a number of Arab analysts, the US plan will not be successfulso that Iran has many options to deal with the United States and its allies.
** Challenge between US and its allies
Qatari Al-Jazeera news organization wrote in a report that Trump’s decisionto cancel waivers to Iran’s oil purchasers is about to begin his campaignfor presidency soon and has economic and political risks. Analysts say USpolicy will boost oil prices. This could also lead to an increase ingasoline prices in the United States.
The impacts of US policy on Iran depends on the commitment of China, Indiaand South Korea to sanctions. These three countries are the largest buyersof Iranian oil and buy 2 million barrels of oil a day from Iran.China, as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, has already challenged the USrequest to stop oil purchases from Iran, and on Monday again announced thatit will continue its legal trade with Iran.In addition to the three countries, Turkey has strengthened its traderelations with Iran, especially in the energy sector.Ankara has announced that mechanisms to thwart US sanctions are in place tocontinue engaging with Iran. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom in theframework of the European Union have now organized mechanisms to continuethe relationship with Iran, Al Jazeera added.
Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper reported that the US decision to abolishwaivers for countries buying oil from Iran faces two problems. The firstproblem related to the need of global markets for Iran’s products and thetense situation in the region and second problem is the ability of thecountries in which the United States has been counting on oil production.Iran’s oil production increased after 2015 nuclear deal in 2015 and lift ofUS sanctions in 2016.Iran has the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves with 160 billion barrelsof oil.Increased tensions in key oil producing areas, including Libya andVenezuela, has made it hard to offset and replace Iran’s oil supply.In this regard, the head of the Libyan National Oil Institute, MostafaSana’ullah, said in an interview with the Financial Times that thecontinuation of the clashes in Libya would lead to the destruction of oilindustry.
Al-Araby Al-Jadeed added, ‘Saudi Arabia faces problems in its currentcapabilities to replace Iran’s oil. Maybe it will be a replacement forIranian oil in the short term and with the help of its oil reserves.But, this country will not succeed in the long run. Perhaps Saudi Arabiawill bet on a number of options in the short term, including increasingoutput to 11 million barrels per day and putting aside its problems withKuwait in the oil-rich areas of al-Faji and al-Wafra, but this countryalone will not be able to be a replacement for Iran’s oil exports.As the Euro-Asia Group in its oil analysis announced that the United Statescannot make its promise of reducing Iranian oil exports to zero due to thecurrent situation in the oil markets.“Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, needs around $ 80 to $ 85a barrel to make a balance in its budget,” Jihad- Azoor, director of theMiddle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fundlast February noted.
According to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed ‘s report, the US administration hasanother solution to itself, which is very bitter. Under this option, theUnited States will force Russia to increase its oil production with thegoal of offsetting Iran’s oil prices on global markets. But it will be inRussia’s favor that its oil sector is under US sanctions.
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Syria’s Al-Thawra daily also wrote that it is very difficult for anycountry, even if it has a big role in the international arena, to imposeits will on the whole of the world to cut to zero the oil export with thepower and threat.”If the other side of this country is Iran, the situation will be evenharder. Because Iran is a vast country with land and sea outreach with onethousand kilometers borders. It has close political and economic ties withmany countries, especially European allies in the European Union and theentire world.’
‘Although Trump’s decisions may have some negative implications for Iran,these consequences will not be based on the wishes of Netanyahu, the primeminister of the Zionist regime. Due to its high level of experience, Iranhas thousands of mechanisms to neutralize and undermine the policy of thehard-line team of Trump and their unilateral sanctions. Definitely, Trampcalculations will not be right. World oil markets will not be able tooperate on the basis of Washington’s decisions. Libya, Venezuela andNigeria cannot export their oil to world markets for various reasons. Saudioil and UAE oil cannot be a replacement for Iranian oil. Nevertheless,given that Trump had promised to continue to lower oil prices in theelection, now his stupid decision, due to his full commitment to theZionism lobby, will have adverse consequences for his political future. ‘
** Iran’s effective diplomacy: a tool to counter US oil sanctions
The London- based Al-Ray al-Youm newspaper in a report by Mohammad Mostafaal-Umrani wrote: ‘The decision of the US president to lift the waivers forcountries to buy oil from Iran is a clear economic war against theeconomy.’Hence, Iran has begun its diplomacy to defeat the decision and is workingto create an international coalition with the aim of confronting thetensions escalated by the United States.
“Iran and its allies in the region have many options and effective trumpcards to thwart the US decision to stop oil exports. Indeed, the countrywill use diplomacy to reduce American- made tensions. This country in thefield of diplomacy is related with all the domestic institutions in thisregard. The State Department’s statement on this matter has also shown thatit has consulted with many foreign companies in neighboring countries, theregion and Europe,” the daily wrote.
Indeed, Iran will do its utmost to defeat US efforts to curb Iran’s oilexports in neighboring countries and European countries. The country hasalready worked to establish and strengthen its relations with Iraq, Turkeyand Pakistan, and has reached important understandings and agreements.The Iranian Foreign Ministry has also consulted with China, Russia, Indiaand other countries, and in this context, Turkey has also expressed itsopposition to US decisions. Iran can use its solid ties with Iraq, Turkey,Pakistan, China, India, and Russia.Iran is skilled in circumventing US sanctions and will deal with thesesanctions in various ways, and will use all the tools to neutralize thesesanctions. ‘
