Inflation in Pakistan is set to break the almost 50-year record of 29.3percent witnessed in April 1975.
Ismail Iqbal Securitieslink hasput the estimate for February 2023 inflation at 29.6 percent but said thatthis is not likely to be the peak as most of the impact of recent sharpcurrency depreciation, energy price adjustments, and tax measures wouldreflect from March 2023. The estimate for March 2023 inflation is 33.6percent.
The report puts the fiscal year 2022-23 (FY23) average at 27.7 percentcompared to 12.1 percent in the previous fiscal year (FY21).
The report said that on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the Consumer PriceIndex (CPI) index is estimated to surge by 2.8 percent led by Food (mainlychicken, rice, and edible oil), Housing (LPG prices), and transport(petroleum prices) segments.
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The report expects core inflation to remain elevated at above 1 percentMoM, given supply shocks as shipments are stuck at ports and imports arerestricted. This would likely lead to urban core inflation of 15.6 percentand rural of 20 percent, the report added.
It is pertinent to mention here that Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index-basedinflation increased to 27.6 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis inJanuary 2023 as compared to an increase of 24.5 percent in the previousmonth (December) and 13 percent in January 2022.