ISLAMABAD – The Indian Armed Forces Joint Doctrine 2017 explicitlyacknowledges the use of “surgical strikes” as a formal part of India’sretaliatory toolkit, validates the existence of India’s Cold StartDoctrine and clearly highlights a shift in nuclear strategyby indicating movement away from “Credible Minimum Deterrence” (CMD) to“Credible Deterrence” (CD).
This was shared by the speakers at the Panel Discussion on “Indian ArmedForces Joint Doctrine 2017: A Critical Appraisal” organised by theIslamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) here in Islamabad today.
It was further noted by the speakers that no longer are the lines “gray” interms of what India’s hegemonic and dangerous designs for the region sincethe document is indicative that New Delhi sees both China and Pakistanas direct military threats. It offers a new picture of how India separatesthe control of its nuclear weapons between military and civilianauthorities.
Welcoming the participants *Ambassador (R) Abdul Basit, *President of IPRIsaid that despite the grave importance of reviewing the JointDoctrine Indian Armed Forces (JDIAF), not much attention has been given tothe subject in Pakistan. He shared that given recent debates on potentialshifts in Indian nuclear strategy, the presentation of India’s nuclearstrategy in the Doctrine is alarming since it has opted to use theterms “Credible Deterrence” instead of “Credible Minimum Deterrence”. Hepointed out that as a reflection of India’s future political and militaryambitions, the Doctrine will have long-term implications for Pakistan’sthreat perceptions and force posturing, and calls for serious contemplationby the Government.
Discussing the “Potential Shifts in Indian Nuclear Strategy: Challenges forNuclear Deterrence in South Asia”, Senior Defence Analyst *Air Commodore(R) Khalid Banuri *highlighted that the Doctrine’s focus on determiningand/or preventing conflict through a process of Credible Deterrence,coercive diplomacy and punitive destruction, disruption and constraint isalarming, and warned that while not mentioning “minimum” in the credibledeterrence formulation is very problematic, it is also unclear what precisechanges are being envisioned by India. He said that the document’s languagewas highly ambiguous and posits more gaps especially in the absence of anautonomous office of Indian Chairman Joint Chief of Staff.
He said that this Doctrine should be viewed in the broader context of thewave of ultra-nationalism that is sweeping the globe and is beingspearheaded by Modi in South Asia. Air Cmdr Banuri cautioned that theDoctrine goes beyond a focus on traditional military imperatives since itportends to use diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions backed byprojection of military force for what India calls “maintaining peacethrough show of force.”
“The fact that India’s future operational or C2 philosophy will ‘not relyupon precise control’, and may be able to ‘function despite uncertainty,disorder and adversity’ is also cause for great concern since this may leadto hasty decisions based on limited information”, he remarked.
Ms Salma Malik, Assistant Professor, DSS Department,Quaid-i-Azam University discussed asymmetric military buildup in SouthAsia and options for Pakistan. She was of the view that this new Doctrinehas had received mixed reactions in India since many view it as anambiguous, document that has more unanswered questions and obviousincongruities. She said that the document leaves no confusion regardingIndia’s malicious designs – a country which was the world’s largestimporter of arms between 2012 and 2016, and the world’s 2ndlargest military force.
Ms Salma pointed out that in the last four years; India’s imports were fargreater than those of both China and Pakistan. However, she also pointedout that India may soon change this role in the global arms industry bytransforming itself into a leading arms exporting nation as well given itsfocus on indigenous defence production.
Later, during questions and answers session, the audience of foreigndignitaries, former ambassadors, defence and strategic studies students andmedia was informed that in 2016-17, the Indian defence sector received USD51 billion, 2.25 per cent of GDP. The United States spends 4.0 per cent ofits GDP on defence, China 2.5 per cent, and Pakistan 3.5 per cent.
Participants agreed that India is trying to harm Pakistan through kineticand non-kinetic means, and the Government needs to stop its internalsquabbles and focus on developing the country’s national strength by virtueof strong and resilient armed forces and by developing an indigenousscientific research and development culture. A strong economy hinges onstrong politics and strong civil-military relations, Pakistan needs tocater to these facets holistically rather than see them in isolation forits own national interests and national security, it was stressed. – APP