Body:Despite fresh interest from American firms in Pakistan’s energy sector,industry experts remain doubtful about former US President Donald Trump’sclaims of “massive” oil reserves in the country, Bloomberg reported onWednesday.
Last month, Trump announced that his administration had reached anagreement with Islamabad to jointly develop Pakistan’s oil resources. “Wehave just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistanand the United States will work together on developing their massive OilReserves,” Trump said on social media, adding that the lead company for theventure was being finalized and suggesting future exports to India werepossible.
Following the announcement, Washington imposed a 19% reciprocal tariff on arange of Pakistani products—lower than the initially proposed 29%. At thesame time, US Charge d’Affaires Natalie A. Baker reaffirmed strong Americaninterest in Pakistan’s energy market during a meeting with FederalPetroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik.
However, Bloomberg’s analysis highlights a declining trend in Pakistan’soil output, raising doubts about Trump’s assertions. “If Pakistan hadmassive oil reserves, then so many foreign companies wouldn’t have left,”remarked Moin Raza Khan, former CEO of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL).Analyst Iqbal Jawaid of Arif Habib Limited estimated Pakistan’s recoverablereserves at around 238 million barrels—far short of the US EnergyInformation Administration’s 2013 projection of 9.1 billion barrels inshale oil.
Pakistan’s most notable oil discoveries remain the Nashpa field (2009) andMakori East field (2011), which continue to be major producers. Recentoffshore drilling efforts in the Arabian Sea by Exxon Mobil, Eni, and localpartners yielded no significant results, while several internationalplayers, including Shell, Kuwait Petroleum, and TotalEnergies, have exitedthe market.
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To revive exploration, Pakistan has opened bidding for 40 offshore blocks,with submissions due in October, including areas in the Indus Basin. Abreakthrough would be a major relief for the government as production hasbeen steadily falling since 2018, according to International Energy Agencydata.
Still, experts warn that even if reserves are present, significantobstacles remain. “If these hurdles were easy to overcome, Pakistanwouldn’t be relying so heavily on oil imports, and more external playerswould have shown interest,” noted Michael Kugelman, non-resident SeniorFellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.