ISLAMABAD: Saudi Arabia’s conditional outreach to the United Arab Emiratesover Yemen has exposed deepening fractures within the Gulf’s once-cohesivepolitical bloc, raising questions about the future of regional cooperation.Speaking in Warsaw, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan signalledopenness to restoring strong bilateral ties, but only if Abu Dhabi fullydisengages from Yemen. The remarks underscored Riyadh’s frustration andhighlighted Yemen as the defining test of trust between the two strategicpartners.
The Saudi position reflects broader anxieties about shifting alliances inthe Middle East, where economic competition and diverging securitypriorities are increasingly driving wedges between traditional allies. Oncealigned closely on regional interventions, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have inrecent years backed rival political actors, particularly in Yemen. Saudiofficials now argue that stability along their southern border depends on aunified command structure, free from competing foreign-backed militiasoperating near sensitive frontier regions.
Yemen has long been the most visible arena of Saudi-Emirati divergence.While both countries initially intervened as part of a coalition aimed atrestoring Yemen’s internationally recognised government, their objectivesgradually diverged. The UAE cultivated ties with southern separatistgroups, viewing them as reliable partners against militant networks and asa means to secure strategic ports. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, prioritisedterritorial integrity and feared fragmentation would prolong the conflict.
Tensions escalated sharply late last year when UAE-backed separatistsseized large swathes of territory, including areas close to the Saudiborder. Riyadh viewed the advance as a direct challenge to its securityinterests and responded with air strikes and by mobilising allied forces onthe ground. The confrontation marked the first open military rift betweenthe two Gulf powers since the Yemen intervention began, transforming amanaged rivalry into a public diplomatic dispute.
Saudi demands for a complete Emirati withdrawal from Yemen became thecentrepiece of efforts to reset relations. Abu Dhabi announced it hadcomplied, stating that remaining deployments were either minimal or purelyadvisory. However, Saudi officials have remained cautious, emphasisingverification and the need for concrete changes on the ground. Theinsistence on “complete” disengagement reflects concerns that proxyinfluence could persist even after formal troop withdrawals.
Speaking in Poland, Prince Faisal bin Farhan framed Saudi Arabia’s stanceas pragmatic rather than punitive. He stressed that Riyadh was “alwayskeen” to maintain a strong and positive relationship with the UAE,acknowledging the depth of economic and political ties between the twoneighbours. Yet he also made clear that Saudi Arabia was prepared to assumesole responsibility for Yemen only if Emirati involvement ended entirely,signalling a red line for future cooperation.
The dispute has implications far beyond Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE arethe Arab world’s two largest economies and central players in regionaldiplomacy. Their rivalry increasingly extends into trade, investment, andinfluence across Africa and the Middle East. Competing visions for economicdiversification, logistics hubs, and foreign policy leadership have added astructural dimension to tensions that Yemen merely brought into sharp focus.
Regional analysts warn that prolonged discord could weaken Gulf collectivesecurity mechanisms at a time of heightened uncertainty. The fragmentationrisks emboldening non-state actors in Yemen and complicating diplomaticefforts led by the United Nations. For Riyadh, consolidating control overthe Yemen file is seen as essential to eventual negotiations. For AbuDhabi, preserving strategic autonomy and influence remains a core priority,even as it recalibrates its military footprint.
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Despite the friction, both sides appear mindful of the costs of an openbreak. Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain deeply interdependent through energymarkets, investment flows, and shared security concerns, including maritimestability in the Red Sea and Gulf. Diplomatic signals suggest a desire tocompartmentalise disputes, preventing Yemen from derailing broadercooperation. Whether this balance can be sustained depends largely ondevelopments on the ground.
Ultimately, the Saudi-UAE standoff illustrates how regional politics areentering a more competitive and transactional phase. Alliances are nolonger assumed to be permanent, but conditional on overlapping intereststhat can shift rapidly. Yemen has become the litmus test for Gulf unity,and the outcome will shape not only bilateral ties but also the widerregional order. Riyadh’s message from Warsaw leaves little doubt thattrust, once strained, must now be rebuilt.
Image: Saudi and Emirati flags symbolising strained Gulf relations overYemen
Source:https://www.reuters.com
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