NEW DELHI – Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chances of getting re-elected inthe 2019 elections have slipped from 99 per cent in 2017 to 50 per cent ,says economic analyst Ruchir Sharma, noting that a fragmented opposition isshowing signs of coming together.

The BJP won with 31 per cent vote share in 2014 because the opposition wasfragmented, seat share was disproportionate and its vote was concentrated,said the New York based columnist and economist who is working on his newbook Democracy on Road, PTI has reported.

The 2019 elections are going to be a complete toss up. If I was a bettingperson, this time last year I would say chances of Modi getting re-electedwere 99 to 1, which basically means it was a done deal yes, it appearedthat way after the UP election wave.However, the odds have shifteddramatically. Now it is a 50:50 election and a lot is going to come down toalliances again. The opposition, from being totally fragmented, is nowactually showing signs of coming together that’s India for you, nobodylikes if it becomes one-sided, Sharma told PTI in an exclusive interview.

The economist has a keen eye on world politics, especially India. His newbook, which is expected to hit the stands in February ahead of the 2019elections, claims to provide an insightful account of how Indian democracyworks, using elections as a lens.

Sharma, who has covered two dozen elections in India since 1990s, recallsthe 2004 elections and argues that the gap in popularity between then primeminister, the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and the opposition is similar tothe situation between Modi and the present opposition today.

You (BJP) won with 31 per cent vote share because the opposition wasfragmented, seat share was disproportionate and the BJP’s vote wasconcentrated.And even against Vajpayee, when the opposition began to cometogether, the same question was asked, who will become the PM, if notVajpayee’ and you had an accidental PM, said Sharma who earlier wrote theNew York Times bestseller The Rise and Fall of Nations”.