ISLAMABAD – Pakistan cannot ignore the great powers politics in Asia due toits geostrategic location, devastating dispute with India, and endlessprotracted asymmetrical warfare in Afghanistan. Paradoxically, thegeostrategic location of Pakistan intensifies its significance in thestrategic calculations of the great powers; concurrently it multiplies itsvulnerability to external interferences. Today, diplomatically Pakistan isat the crossroads. It has gradually been loosing its significance in theAmericans’ global strategic outlook. The cementing Indo-US strategicpartnership has been causing misperceptions entailing differences betweenPakistan and United States. Consequently, Americans have been distancingthemselves from Pakistan and thereby Islamabad and Washington diplomaticrelations are also deteriorating.

Realizing the shift in American policy, Pakistan is revisiting its foreignand strategic policy. Presently, it is improving its bilateral relationswith both Russian Federation and China. Instead of military alignments,Islamabad has been struggling to cultivate economic, cultural anddiplomatic relations with China, Russia, Central Asian nations. Indeed,Pakistanis would benefits from Asian economic connectivity rather thanbeing a front-line akin to the Cold War-style confrontation, which had ledto troubled ties with neighbours.

Today, Pakistan has been seriously working on China-Pakistan EconomicCorridor and improving its economic connectivity with the EconomicCooperation Organization (ECO), especially Central Asian states. On March1, 2017, Pakistan successfully held the 13th ECO Summit at Islamabad withthe theme of “Connectivity for Regional Prosperity.” Perhaps, without theregional connectivity neither ECO members nor Pakistan resolve theirsocio-economic problems.

China’s President, Xi Jinping One Belt and One Road (OBOR) enterprise orBelt-Road Initiative (BRI) and President Barak Obama ‘Asia-pivot’ strategybroaden the scope of Pakistan-China strategic partnership. President Xiannounced China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project in April 2015.Subsequently, CPEC was designated as the flagship project of $1-trillionglobal Belt Road Initiative.

The CPEC germinated optimism about the economic development of Pakistan.Geographically, being a pivotal Asian state, Pakistan can maximize itseconomic, diplomatic and military interests in the transforming globalstrategic environment. CPEC has not only amplified Pakistan’s pivotal rolein the connectivity of Western, Central South Asian and Eurasian nations,but has also provided immense economic opportunity. It has been bringingconstructive change in Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy production andforeign direct investment.

The impressive work on the CPEC project has alarmed Washington and itsallies. Many western analysts interpreted it as a strategic arrangementbetween Beijing and Islamabad having hidden military designs to liberatethe latter from “Malacca Dilemma”. It is an open secret that Chinaenormously relies on the Malacca Straits (sea-route). Its nearly 80% ofenergy needs (oil imports) en-route from the Middle East to China portspass through Malacca Straits. President Hu Jintao coined term “MalaccaDilemma” in November 2003 to express over-reliance of China on Strait.

He noted: “certain powers have all along encroached on and tried to controlnavigation through [Malacca] Strait.” Nevertheless, conflicts in region,India’s Asia-Pacific strategy to steward Indian Ocean, vulnerability of sealanes to great powers strategic competition, new maritime alliancesformation etc. pose a challenge to China’s geopolitical and energystrategies and other issues that can crop up from time to time togetherconstitute “Malacca Dilemma”.The current Chinese ruling elite cannot underestimate Malacca Dilemma,especially after President Trump declared China as a strategic competitorand approved India’s “leadership role in Indian Ocean security andthroughout the broader region” to balance China in the Asian strategicsetting.

The United States 2017 National Security Strategy document claimed thatChina challenges American power, influence, interests, and attempting toerode American security and prosperity. Instead of responding pugnaciously,Beijing advised Washington to avoid Cold War mentality. Nevertheless, afterannouncement of National Security Strategy on December 18, 2017, Trumpadministration has adopted punitive attitude towards Pakistan.

This impression that CPEC has inbuilt military dimension is due to theimpressive defense cooperation between China and Pakistan since decades.Nonetheless, both the Chinese and Pakistani government officials have beendoing their best to quash the impression about the military dimension ofCPEC. Chinese ambassador to Islamabad Yao Jing categorically stated: “Iwant to make it very clear, BRI initiative and with CPEC under it, it’spurely a commercial development project. We don’t have any kind of militaryor strategic design for that. We don’t want to make the CPEC as such a kindof platform.” Despite the Chinese and Pakistani clarifications about CPEC,Americans and Indians have been expressing their serious concerns about theproject.

To conclude, India and United States collusion against China germinatesmisperceptions about CPEC. Moreover, New Delhi has been involved insabotaging the project. In this context, it has been using Hybrid warfaretechniques. Therefore, Islamabad should revamp its foreign and strategicpolicy intelligently and carefully in the transforming global politicalenvironment and also vigilantly combats internally the Hybrid warfare forsmooth execution of CPEC projects.

BY: Zafar Nawaz Jaspal— The writer is Associate Professor, School ofPolitics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.