India accidentally fired a cruise missile into Pakistan on March 9, 2022.The missile was not armed and only damaged some property. (No lives werelost.) Both sides projected calm in the incident’s aftermath. The Indiangovernment issued a brief statementlink that themissile launch was “a technical malfunction” during routine maintenance. Italso ordered “a high-level court of inquiry.” Pakistan publicly called outIndia’s mistake, asked for an explanation, and calledlinkfora “thorough and transparent investigation” to be conducted jointly by bothcountries. Cool heads prevailed.
Still, the incident raises questions about the safety of India’s cruisemissile systems, especially given the real risk of accidental escalationbetween nuclear-armed adversaries.
The missile at the center of the accident was reportedlinka surface-launched supersonic BrahMos cruise missile jointly developedlink by India and Russia with a range of290 kilometers. India is also developinglinkanextended air-launched variant with a range of 800 kilometers. The BrahMosis not a part of India’s nuclear forces, though it has been reported to benuclear-capablelink.India may realize its nuclear potential if it moves toward a counterforcenuclear doctrine, according to some scholarslink.
The incident was dangerous for several reasons. First, the missile,cruising at 40,000 feet, “endangered many international and domesticflights in both Pakistani and Indian airspace,” according to a spokespersonlinkforPakistan’s armed forces. It could have hit civilian aircraft in its path.link
Second, the missile could have landed in a heavily populated area. TheIndian government acknowledged the potential for disaster in a statement:“While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of reliefthat there has been no loss of life due to the accident.” Additionally,Indian Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh laterlinkclarifiedlinkthatit only “later learnt” that the missile had landed in Pakistan, raising thepossibility that India had not tracked the missile’s trajectory. Themisfired missile might have landed in a densely populated part of India aswell.How to mix sanctions and diplomacy to avert disaster in Ukrainelink
Finally, the incident risked a military escalation between twonuclear-armed countries. In recent years, the threshold for militaryengagement between India and Pakistan has been reduced. In 2016, Indiantroops conducted “surgical strikes” against militants on the Pakistani sideof the “line of control” in the Kashmir area, in response to a terroristattack on an Indian army base. In 2019, the Indian Air Force crossed theinternational border and bombed Balakot in Pakistan in response to a terrorattack against Indian paramilitary troops in Pulwama, Kashmir. Pakistan’sresponse to this attack led to an air-battle over Kashmir that ended when aMig-21—a supersonic fighter jet—was shot down. The potential for militaryescalation between both states is high. The accidental launch of theBrahMos missile could have sparked a military crisis.
The accidental BrahMos missile’s flight-time was about six minuteslink,which did not give Pakistan much time to ascertain if the missile was armedor not. (Pakistan has not confirmed if it managed to make such adetermination at all.) “In a nuclear environment, such callousness andineptitude raises questions about the safety and security of Indian weaponssystems,” Pakistan’s national security advisor saidlink.If the missile had been armed, Pakistan might have responded with militaryforce. Pakistan reportedlylinkpreparedto launch a proportional retaliatory strike against India before itrealized that that the missile might have been accidentally fired.
India and Pakistan have instituted some measures to mitigate dangers frommilitary accidents. For example, their joint agreement on thepre-notification of flight testing of ballistic missileslink is intended toprevent “misunderstandings and misinterpretations” and promote a “stableenvironment of peace and security between the two countries.” Per theagreement, each side is expected to provide at least three days’ notice fora test launch. Also, both sides have agreed not to situate test launchsites within 40 kilometers of their shared border.Ukraine building a nuclear bomb? Dangerous nonsense.link
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Such measures have limitations. The agreement concerns only ballisticmissiles and not cruise missiles like the one involved in the March 9accident. Further, even if the agreement concerned cruise missiles, anaccidental launch like the one on March 9 does not provide time for advancewarning. Future agreements should address cruise missile and accidentallaunches. Such measures are especially important given the short flighttimes between the adversaries.
The Director Generals of Military Operations of India and Pakistan operatea hotline link to“resolve any unforeseen situation or misunderstanding” between the states.However, neither country reportedlylinkthe hotline during the recent accident. There is a stark lack of standardoperating procedures between the two states to deal with accidents relatedto sophisticated conventional weapons (including both ballistic and cruisemissiles) that could lead to military escalation.
India’s accidental missile launch joins a growing list of missileaccidents, some of which were nuclear. In 1983, the Soviet Union’searly-warning systems mistakenly detectedlink a US missile attack. Atthe time, Stanislav Petrov, a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet military,reported a system malfunction and saved the world from a nuclear exchange.In 1995, Russia detected a Norwegian research rocket launchlink(tostudy the aurora borealis) and mistook it for an intercontinental ballisticmissile (ICBM) heading to Moscow. President Boris Yeltsin was prepared toretaliate but ultimatelylink decided thatthat Washington had not launched a nuclear first strike on Russia. However,the incident highlighted the risk of accidental escalation during peacetimeand the role of luck in averting disaster.
The recent exchange between India and Pakistan was more of a diplomaticincident than a military one. But unless the two countries establishmeasures to mitigate such dangers, the world may not be so lucky the nexttime.
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