NEW DELHI – Notwithstanding BJP’s recent by-election setbacks and therebelling NDA allies, dire predictions about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s2019 fate seem to be completely wrong.
Setback in few constituencies in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan anddisaffection among some allies are wrongly being extrapolated withperception to predict the end of Modi raj next year.
Four years after he won a stunning victory, the Modi wave has dissipated,he is weakened. Still, he stands tall against the Opposition leaders whofancy to challenge him.
The CPI(M), which is viscerally opposed to Modi and his ideology, haspainted a realistic picture of the situation. In a frank andforthright editorial in party journal, *People’s Democracy*, the CPI(M) hasadmitted that Opposition parties are woefully divided to put up a seriouschallenge to Modi.
Having played vital role in brining non-Congress parties together againstthe BJP on many occasions in the past, the CPI(M) has exposed the chinks inthe ranks of the Opposition.
The CPI(M) party mouthpiece has advanced three convincing arguments. One,it was warned Opposition parties that an UPA 3 against Modi will notsucceed in 2019.
“The Congress won’t succeed with another UPA experiment as it has lost allcredibility and the best way to defeat the BJP in the next Lok Sabhaelection will be to pool in all anti-BJP votes state-wise,” the CPI(M) hassaid.
This is a frank and scathing critique of the Congress. Through thisargument, the CPI(M) has sought to deflate the so-called resurgence of theCongress under Rahul Gandhi.
The *People’s Democracy *editorial, which reflects CPI(M)’s officialposition, suggests that party general secretary Sitaram Yechury haseffectively been sidelined. Yechury, who has been advocating the need forCPI(M) to join hands with the Congress to fight the BJP, appears to havebeen chastened after Tripura’s crushing defeat.
Two, the CPI(M) argues that regional parties such as TDP, TRS and BJD arenot prepared to unite under the Congress’ leadership. The CPI(M) itself, itsays, will not forge anti-BJP unity with the Congress. The referenceobviously is to Kerala, where CPI(M) is in direct contest with the Congress.
The logic is straightforward. Regional parties will not join hands with theCongress in alliance or seat adjustments in all those states where theCongress is their main adversary.
Although the CPI(M) hasn’t mentioned the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, the WestBengal leader has no love lost for the Congress. TMC’s main rival in WestBengal is the CPI(M). But the Congress-Left unity can be a headache forBanerjee.
Thirdly, the CPI(M) has also pooh-poohed the idea of a federal front mootedby TRS leader K Chandrashekhar Rao to confront the BJP. Banerjee is keen onpromoting a federal front against the BJP, of which the Congress will notbe a partner.
Banerjee doesn’t hide her antipathy towards the Congress. That’s why sheskipped the dinner called by Sonia Gandhi for Opposition leaders of 19parties to discuss the need for uniting against Modi in 2019.
According to the CPI(M), formation of federal front will end up dividingthe anti-BJP votes because some parties such the RJD and the DMK are withthe Congress.
In a nutshell, one of the main anti-BJP parties and driver of anti-Modiunity has ruled out the feasibility of pre-poll alliance among Oppositionparties. That is demoralising for the Opposition leaders who discoveredspring in their steps after the BJP’s defeat in by-elections.
The formula for taking on Modi, the CPI(M) suggests, is state-wise unity.It cites the example of SP-BSP tie-ups in Gorakhpur and Phulpur as a modelto beat the BJP.
It says, “The UP by-election provides important lessons for the future interms of election tactics to defeat the BJP. If the BJP loses the bulk ofthe seats in UP, it cannot come anywhere near a majority in the Lok Sabha.”
However, the CPM’s own logic that local contradictions between parties comein the way of forging unity against Modi will prevent Akhilesh Yadav andMayawati from presenting a smooth, tension-free united front in UP.
Political strategists and commenters too are presenting the twoby-elections as a model to be replicated in Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats. Theyforget that the SP and the BSP have sharp caste and class contradictionsthat won’t let them enter into problem-free rainbow coalition. The SP’sYadav-led OBC followers and BSP’s Dalits are in conflicts with each otherin most of the villages where they are present in substantial numbers.
It’s the same problem between the JD(U) and the RJD. Although they formed amahagathbandhan or a grand alliance to defeat the BJP in Bihar, their unitydidn’t last long. Modi and Shah had the last laugh.
Most election analysts point to the combined vote share of the SP and theBSP and say that the two parties together would have won 50 out of 80seats, leaving only 30 for the BJP. That’s a hypothetical situation.
India would have had coalition governments in perpetuity had all Oppositionparties got united against the ruling party of the day since the time ofIndira Gandhi. With dim prospects of unity among disparate Oppositionparties, as outlined by CPI(M), Modi and Shah look to be in comfortablesituation to win the 2019 race.
The Congress will present formidable challenge to BJP in Rajasthan, MadhyaPradesh and Chhattisgarh – total 65 seats – where the two parties are indirect contests and where the BJP will face anti-incumbency. But tocompensate, the BJP will have Modi as its lead campaigner who stands tallerthan any Congress leader.
Besides disunity, local contradictions and large size egos of their leaders- Mamata and Mayawati, to name just two – Opposition parties have tocontend with two factors they don’t possess.
One, they have to face a Machiavellian tactician in Modi, the only leaderwith a pan-India mass appeal who can swing voters in his favour. Two, thegreat electoral machine of the BJP led by Amit Shah with over 8 crore RSSworkers behind him. – India Today
Opposition has no chance.
By: Asoshk K Singh