Warfare is a constant phenomenon of human history. To ensure its survival,man has always endeavored to acquire more potent weapon systems. The Finalyear of World War-2 witnessed the advent of nuclear age when US dropped anatomic bomb on Japan. This gave birth to a new debate in InternationalRelations. US and USSR are the pioneer of the nuclear era and the Cold Warsaw a significant development in the theory and practice of nuclearweapons. In 1956, the Soviet Union fielded a Zulu-Class submarine equippedwith one Scud ballistic missile. This was to strike back the US withnuclear weapon in the event of massive American strike against the landbased weapons of USSR. This was the genesis of the Second StrikeCapability. It is a concept which suggests to have nuclear weapons safefrom first strike of the adversary so that it could be used forretaliation.
This will deter the adversary from carrying out a first strike. A submarineis considered as a reliable platform for assured and credible second strikecapability. Pakistan and India are adversaries since 1947. Both thecountries have fought many wars. The year 1998 saw the advent of nuclearweapons in South Asia when India and Pakistan became an overt nuclearweapons state. Since then, both the countries are involved in nuclear armrace and in this arm race India had attained the second strike capabilitywith the induction of INS-Arihant which is a nuclear powered ballisticmissile submarine.
This capability is causing instability in the region. Pakistan do not wantsto be dominated by India due to which it has also started work to achievesecond strike capability. That’s why Pakistan has developed a submarinebased cruise missile Babur-III with a range of 450 km, which providessecond strike capability to Pakistan. This paper would highlight why secondstrike capability of Pakistan is not yet credible and still in the stagesof maturity. For the purpose of research, secondary data like news articlesand research papers have been reviewed.
Pakistan and India are rivals since their independence from British. Thereis a security dilemma between these two states. Due to which Pakistan andIndia both are indulged in arm race. The stance of Pakistan is alwaysreactive. Pakistan always responds to the action taken by India likeattainment of nuclear arsenals, second strike capability. Indian aggressivenuclear programs causes strategic instability in the region. Pakistanresponse is always aimed at balancing against India to ensure strategicstability of South Asia. In 2004, India made a comprehensive plan for themodernization of its nuclear force. It also included the development offour indigenous nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN).
In 2010, India started its work and in 2018 the Indian Navy launched itsfirst nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine, INS Arihant. Throughthis submarine India attained its second strike capability and threesubmarines are under work. To bring parity, Pakistan made modifications inits conventional submarines that uses an air independent propulsion system,and equipped them with a modified cruise missile, Babur-III. This isconsidered as a second strike capability for Pakistan.
Now the debate is that whether the Pakistan’s second strike capability iscredible or not. For the credible second strike capability, possession ofan SSBN is crucial as it stays under the water for a longer period of timewithout being detected. Such kind of characteristics is present in INSArihant whereas Pakistan have conventional submarine which cannot stay fora longer period of time under water. Currently, Pakistan has modified onlyone of its submarines. Due to maintenance and logistic issues, onesubmarine cannot be remained in waters all the time, thus compromising thedeterrence.
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Secondly, Pakistan has incorporated short range cruise missile in itssubmarine with the range of 450 km which only threatened the coastal citiesof India like Mumbai. If India moves all its land based arsenals far fromthe range of Pakistan then Pakistan’s second strike capability would not beable to annihilate its land based nuclear arsenals. So here is a limitingfactor in second strike capability of Pakistan. For a true and crediblesecond strike, at least a medium range submarine launched ballistic missileis vital.
Lastly, a robust Nuclear Command, Control and Communication (NC3) systemalso plays a very crucial role in ensuring the deterrence. This is ahierarchy of national command authority that explains the chain throughwhich order of strategic launching is passed to the commanding officer ofthe launch platform, submarine in this case. This mechanism is made toprevent unauthorized/accidental launch of nuclear weapon. A robustcommunication network is required for communicating the order. Tocommunicate the order from National Command Authority for the launch ofBabur-III missile, there must be a proper Nuclear Command, Control &Communications system. At present, this is a challenge for Pakistan becauseordinary communication methods are not suitable for nuclear operation. Sothis mechanism of command and control is in its early stages in Pakistan.This command and control system of Pakistan may compromise its deterrence.
From the research work it is concluded that currently Pakistan’s secondstrike capability is not yet credible. At the time of hostility it wouldnot deter the enemy completely. There are many limiting factors inPakistan’s second strike capability. Pakistan entails to invest in nuclearpower ballistic missiles submarines as it provides an assured and viablesecond strike capability by remaining submerged under the ocean for alonger time. It will add credibility to its second strike capability.Secondly Pakistan should develop a long range submarine launched ballisticmissiles to deter India completely and ensure its policy of full spectrumdeterrence.By: Asma Tanveer
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