BY: Qaiser Bashir Makhdoom
India’s missile program has quietly evolved from a regional deterrencemechanism to a global power projection tool. Once claiming to uphold apolicy of “minimum deterrence,” India now pursues long-rangenuclear-capable ballistic missiles that threaten not only South Asia butalso Europe, the United States, and international security at large.
The case of the Agni-V missile illustrates this deception clearly.Originally acknowledged, even by Indian officials and experts, as anIntercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range between 7,000 and8,000 kilometers, the Agni-V was openly celebrated as a symbol of India’sentry into the global nuclear elite. That range places vast areas ofEurope, East Asia, and U.S. assets in the Pacific firmly within reach. Yetin recent years, India has deliberately rebranded the Agni-V as an“Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile” (IRBM), citing a maximum range ofonly 5,000 kilometers. This semantic downgrading is not a matter oftechnical accuracy but a calculated strategy to avoid internationalscrutiny and sanctions normally associated with ICBM development. It alsoallows India to present itself as moderate while quietly expanding itsglobal strike capability with Multiple Independently Targetable ReentryVehicles (MIRVs), which enable one missile to deliver several nuclearwarheads to different cities.
Even more alarming is India’s development of the Agni-VI, expected toexceed 10,000 kilometers in range. This new missile would bring theAmerican mainland into striking distance, marking India’s transformationfrom a regional power into a global nuclear actor. From western India, theAgni-V and Agni-VI could cover all of Europe, NATO bases, and U.S.interests in the Pacific, and with MIRV technology, they could devastatemultiple targets in a single launch. The absence of transparentinternational oversight makes this build-up especially dangerous, as Indiais modernizing its arsenal without any checks.
This trajectory has already rendered India’s official doctrine of “credibleminimum deterrence” meaningless. The expansion of its missile program,combined with the steady development of a full nuclear triad on land, air,and sea, points not to defensive security but to maximum ambition. Suchpolicies carry serious consequences. A regional arms race is intensifyingas Pakistan and China respond with parallel advancements. Strategicimbalance is growing as India positions itself as a global nuclear actorwithout the accountability demanded of established powers. And with missileranges now extending to Europe and the U.S., India risks sparking adangerous wave of global nuclear rivalry.
The threat does not end with weapons. India has also been implicated instate-sponsored terrorism, extraterritorial assassinations, and covertdestabilization of neighboring states. This aggressive posture, whencombined with advanced nuclear capabilities, becomes a unique danger. Astate that sponsors such activities cannot be trusted to act responsiblywith global strike weapons. Smaller nations in South Asia are already beingbullied and coerced, and the same strategy of intimidation is beingextended through nuclear leverage to far wider regions.
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India’s long-range ballistic missile program poses direct challenges tointernational peace. It undermines arms control norms by avoiding the levelof scrutiny that other states with ICBM programs face. It acceleratesunchecked escalation by allowing India to expand its arsenal withouttransparency. And it destabilizes regions far beyond South Asia bythreatening European capitals and American interests. These developmentscannot be ignored without grave risks to global security.
The international community must act decisively. India’s missiles should bereassessed under global arms control frameworks, with transparency andmonitoring enforced. Non-proliferation measures must be extended to includeIndia’s arsenal, which is already well beyond any concept of minimumdeterrence. Finally, India’s destabilizing behavior in South Asia must betaken into account, as a state willing to undermine peace in itsneighborhood cannot be allowed unchecked access to long-range nuclearweapons.
Unless addressed, India’s nuclear ambitions will transform it from aregional power into an unmonitored global nuclear threat. What is presentedas a posture of restraint is, in reality, a deception masking a vastbuild-up of capabilities designed for global leverage. Recognizing andconfronting this reality is essential before the consequences extend farbeyond the subcontinent and threaten the entire international order.