NEW DELHI – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked on course Thursdayfor a major victory in the world’s biggest election, with early trendssuggesting his Hindu nationalist party will win a bigger majority even than2014.
After two and a half hours of counting, figures from the ElectionCommission showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the lead in 283seats out of 542 with the rival Congress on just 51.
If confirmed — no actual results have been published yet — this wouldpush the Hindu nationalist BJP over the 272 seats needed for a majority onits own, and beat its tally of 282 when Modi swept to power in the world’sbiggest democracy in 2014 with the first majority in 30 years.
The result would give the BJP and its allies, which early trends suggestedwould win close to 50 seats, a commanding majority of around 330 seats.
Having risen strongly since exit polls on Sunday had pointed to a Modivictory, Indian stock markets on Thursday hit record new highs shortlyafter opening, with the Sensex and the Nifty indices both up more than twopercent.
After an exercise not short of staggering statistics, the 600 million votescast in purportedly the world’s most expensive democratic exercise –costing more than $7 billion, experts say — were set to be counted in justone day.
Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party, hoping to become the fourth member ofthe Gandhi-Nehru dynasty to lead India, had on Wednesday dismissed the exitpolls.
“Don’t get disappointed by the propaganda of fake exit polls,” Gandhi, 48,told the party faithful on Twitter.
Early trends also suggested that Gandhi was in a tight race in hisconstituency of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh state, a seat held by his familyfor generations.
Indian exit polls are notoriously unreliable. In 2004 they pointed to a BJPvictory but the results told a different story, bringing a Congress-ledgovernment to power.
Results in several regions such as Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populousstate which formed the core of Modi’s support in 2014, and West Bengal inthe east, will be key.
– Insults and fake news –
The vast size of India stretching from the Himalayas to the Tropics, takingin polluted megacities, deserts and jungles, meant the election stretchedover six weeks.
The campaign was awash with insults — Modi was likened to Hitler and a”gutter insect” — as well as fake news disseminated on social media inFacebook and WhatsApp’s biggest markets.
Gandhi, 48, tried several lines of attack against Modi, in particular overalleged corruption in a French defence deal and over the desperate plightof farmers and the lacklustre economy.
Unemployment is reported to be at a four-decade high with Asia’sthird-biggest economy growing too slowly to create jobs for the millionIndians entering the labour market every month.
Modi’s shock cash ban in 2016 — not even his cabinet were informed beforehis televised address to the nation — disrupted livelihoods. Foreigninvestment has however increased.
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Modi, a former cadre in the militaristic hardline Hindu group RashtriyaSwayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and chief minister of Gujurat in 2002 when riotskilled more than 1,000 people, most of them Muslims, is also seen asdivisive.
Lynchings of Muslims and low-caste Dalits for eating beef and slaughteringand trading in cattle have risen, adding to anxiousness among the170-million-strong Muslim population, the world’s second biggest.
Under Modi several cities with names rooted in India’s Islamic Mughul pasthave been re-named, while some school textbooks have been changed todownplay Muslims’ contributions to India.
Vinod Bansal, a spokesman for the Hindu nationalist Vishwa Hindu Parishad(VHP), told AFP he wants a “complete ban” on the slaughter of cows, sacredto most Hindus.
“If Modi again comes to power we are doomed,” Hassan Khalid Azmi, a retiredchemistry professor in the northern city of Azamgarh, told AFP earlier thismonth.
– ’56-inch chest’ –
But Modi, 68, managed deftly to turn the election into a referendum on hisrule while depicting himself, often in the third person, as the only oneable to defend India.
In this he was given a major boost when a suicide bombing, claimed by aPakistan-based militant group, killed 40 Indian paratroopers inIndian-administered Kashmir on February 14.
Doubts abound about the efficacy of India’s subsequent air strikes onPakistan, but the action enabled Modi to style himself the “chowkidar”(“watchman”) with the supposed 56-inch (142-centimetre) chest.
“Wherever the terror groups and perpetrators may hide, our security forceswill flush them out and punish them,” he thundered. “Every drop of blood ofour slain soldiers shall be avenged.”
Indian election officials in Bangalore erect a banner with the list ofconstituencies at a counting centre on the eve of vote-tally day, when theroughly 600 million ballots cast in the world’s biggest election are to becounted
In 2014 Narendra Modi and his party swept to power with 282 seats in the545-seat parliament
Rahul Gandhi is hoping to become the fourth member of the Gandhi-Nehrudynasty to lead India
An Indian official in Ahmedabad monitors screens in a CCTV control room ata counting centre on the eve of vote-tally day after India’s generalelection. APP/AFP
